- The Trump trade was in full swing following the attempted assassination of the former president.
- Bitcoin surged after the attack, while the dollar also gained.
- Shares of Tesla, the private-prison firm GEO Group, and Trump's media company all spiked.
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The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump is already influencing markets as investors place bets on trades set to benefit from a second Trump term.
In the immediate aftermath of the attack at Trump's rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the price of bitcoin increased by 2%. Those gains extended to 4% on Monday morning.
Trump has come out strongly in favor of bitcoin this year and is set to headline the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville later this month with a speech.
Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group soared 48% on a massive trading volume of 13 million shares in Monday's premarket trading session. Shortly after the opening bell, the stock pared that gain by about 28% to trade at $40 a share.
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Tesla stock was also higher on Monday by about 4%.
If Trump is reelected in November, it could have mixed results for the electric-vehicle industry. But analysts have described the company as a Trump trade, and the EV maker was largely higher as its CEO, Elon Musk, endorsed Trump over the weekend.
"I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery," Musk said Saturday on X.
Shares of the GEO Group, a company that operates private prisons and correctional facilities, jumped about 7% on Monday.
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The company is seen as benefiting from a second Trump presidency, especially if he followed through on his proposed plan to detain and deport millions of immigrants.
Markets see higher inflation, higher rates
Even before the assassination attempt, economists and analysts were debating what a Trump presidency would mean for markets.
A Trump agenda would spur "higher inflation expectations, higher breakeven rates, higher yields and steeper yield curve because of expectations of greater deficit spending in the United States," Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com, an online trading platform, wrote in a client note.
Rodda wrote that in the short term, investors would look to bitcoin and gold as havens to hedge against political instability in the US.
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Long-term bond yields rose Monday on the prospects of higher inflation and expanding fiscal policy that could come if Trump won reelection, with the 30-year US Treasury yield rising above the two-year US Treasury yield for the first time since January.
"UST yields are rising as the prospect of Trump regaining the presidency also rises. Higher tariffs, restricted immigration, and the extension of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act are the three key aspects of Trump's policy agenda that traders associate with higher inflation and higher interest rates," the Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman wrote in a note on Monday, adding that European defense stocks were also rallying on the premise that Trump would force Europe's governments to spend more on defense.
"Judging by historical parallels, this event will galvanize the Trump vote, meaning the markets will gradually price in the so-called 'Trump trade,'" Rodda wrote.
"The direct impact could be a firmer US dollar, as higher odds of a Trump's presidency suggest that his inflationary policies in terms of stricter immigration, tougher trade ties, and increased spending could potentially be set to pass," Yeap Jun Rong, a markets analyst at trading platform IG, wrote on Monday.
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Finally, an odd beneficiary of the failed attempt on Trump's life appeared to be the stock of a Chinese company whose name sounds like "Trump wins big" when pronounced in its local language.
The stock saw its price rise by the maximum daily limit of 10% in Shenzhen. Wisesoft also saw its stock price rise in late June following President Joe Biden's poor debate performance against Trump.
Correction: July 15, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misspelled the name of Yeap Jun Rong.
"trade" - Google News
July 15, 2024 at 05:44PM
https://ift.tt/j4YWXmd
The Trump trade is in full swing as markets react to the attempted assassination of the former president - Markets Insider
"trade" - Google News
https://ift.tt/CA5zXKn
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