CHICAGO — Nearly three months before the trade deadline, the Miami Marlins began dismantling their last-place team, sending batting champion Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres for four unproven players. The Marlins are clearly open for business, writing off this entire season in the name of future value. The unusual timing could be an opportunity.
Especially for a team like the Chicago Cubs. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer oversees a top-rated farm system and a budget process that traditionally sets aside a significant amount of money for in-season additions. For a major-league club that has realistic playoff ambitions, the bullpen stands out as a glaring weakness.
“I knew that trade was in the works,” Hoyer said Monday. “I’ve been talking to the Marlins. Just in general, as you talk to different people, so that wasn’t a surprise. But I don’t expect that to kick off a ton of early deals. It may be earlier than usual, but it’s not going to be all of a sudden in mid-May everyone’s making a bunch of trades.”
Arraez batted leadoff in San Diego’s Monday night lineup at Wrigley Field. A.J. Preller, the president of baseball operations, runs the Padres in a frenetic manner that is the opposite of Hoyer’s deliberate, long-term approach. The Arraez trade cost the Padres three prospects plus Korean reliever Woo-Suk Go — all four players were at the Double-A level or lower. The Marlins also kicked in close to $8 million to close the deal.
Perhaps the Marlins and Padres are outliers, desperate for different reasons, and most of the action will culminate in late July. The Marlins are a bad team because they don’t have enough good players, so it’s not like their roster will be teeming with talented upgrades over what the Cubs already have in their deep organization.
The Cubs believe their bullpen will improve once pitchers such as Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jordan Wicks get the rotation closer to full strength. A bad start doesn’t necessarily mean a reliever can’t be trusted for the rest of the season. Bullpens are inherently volatile and unpredictable. An early seller could also be a different variable.
“We’ll be looking for external stuff,” Hoyer said. “But that stuff is generally not available this time of year, so the focus right now is on getting healthy and improving guys that might be struggling.”
Marlins reliever Tanner Scott, for example, is a left-handed pitcher the Cubs placed on their radar because they’re constantly looking at bullpen options. Scott is not a big name, but he has 37 career saves and 300-plus innings of major-league experience. He’s averaged almost 68 appearances across the past three seasons. He also has a walk rate of around 22 percent so far this year. He’s due the balance of his $5.7 million salary and can become a free agent after this season, which in Miami makes him expendable.
Hoyer generally prefers to go with a volume approach rather than overextend for any one reliever, but even that philosophy is evolving. This past offseason, the Cubs signed Héctor Neris to a one-year, $9 million contract that represented a small step outside their comfort zone, and a drop from his expectations coming off two strong seasons with the Houston Astros that included a World Series championship.
Adbert Alzolay, who was booed off the Wrigley Field mound last Friday, already has four losses and five blown saves. As manager Craig Counsell said, the Cubs need Alzolay, who emerged as the closer last year and went 22-for-25 in save chances. Something might click and Alzolay could turn things around. His reputation, going back to his time in the minors, is that of a tireless worker and a strong leader. Waiting around and hoping for that to happen is not Counsell’s style.
Neris became the unofficial closer. It’s easy to see how he could eventually lose his spot in the ninth inning. He’s walking around 20 percent of the hitters he’s faced so far this season. It’s also easy to understand why teammates respect him and trust him in those moments.
“I looked up his Baseball-Reference page the other day,” Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon said. “He’s been in every big spot. He’s had the bases loaded. He’s pitched on the road in tough spots. He’s pitched in the playoffs, all that. You get that vibe from him. He’s sure of who he is. He’s confident. There’s definitely no panic.”
There was never an expectation that Hoyer’s group would sign Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million contract, a move the Astros may ultimately regret (if they haven’t reached that conclusion already). But Hoyer knows firsthand that championship-caliber bullpens are not completely put together by minor-league signings and waiver claims. The last World Series window in Wrigleyville featured a collection of All-Star closers as Theo Epstein and Hoyer traded for Aroldis Chapman and Wade Davis and later signed Craig Kimbrel.
It was considered early when the Texas Rangers acquired Chapman one month before last year’s trade deadline. Chapman helped the Rangers win their first World Series, which means it doesn’t matter to them how well starting pitcher Cole Ragans performs for the Kansas City Royals. Sooner or later, Hoyer will be facing a similar decision.
“When I think back on some very calm moments in my career, having Jonathan Papelbon and Aroldis Chapman back there is a good feeling,” Hoyer said. “I wouldn’t mind getting back to that where you can sort of pack up your stuff in the ninth inning and not have a lot of anxiety. That’s where we all want to be. There’s not many guys in the game you can say that about. Obviously, our job is to trade for one or to sign one, or to develop one. The teams that have those feel really comfortable.”
(Top photo of Adbert Alzolay at the end of March: Gareth Patterson / Associated Press)
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