China laps Germany in some exports, turning trade tide and raising eyebrows - South China Morning Post

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China has surpassed Germany in the exports of some products, a changing of the guard which has already altered the balance of trade in major markets, posed challenges to the European manufacturing powerhouse and cast a cloud over bilateral relations, according to a new report.

While Germany has historically been a major source of imports in the European Union, particularly in advanced sectors like motor vehicles and machinery, its market share has been declining, insurer Allianz Trade said in a publication that declared “the trade tide is turning”.

In contrast, the company said, China has been “making significant gains” in the European market across sectors like computers, electronics and optical products, metals and basic pharmaceuticals.

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“The momentum is especially strong in electrical equipment, which has risen by 5.1 percentage points from 2018 to 2023 and 7 percentage points from 2013 to 2023,” the report noted. “This trend highlights the growing competitiveness of China.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will arrive in China on Saturday with a business delegation for a three-day visit that will include meetings with President Xi Jinping and other senior officials. Trade is expected to be high on the agenda.

China remains Germany’s largest trading partner. But figures from China’s General Administration of Customs showed that exports and imports between the two countries in 2023 dropped 8.7 per cent from a year earlier, falling to US$206.8 billion.

[China] has … captured market share in advanced industrial sectors while simultaneously squeezing out European products

Allianz Trade

“China is moving up global value chains, with global export market shares surpassing Germany in key sectors,” said the Allianz report.

“It has steadily moved up the value chain and captured market share in advanced industrial sectors while simultaneously squeezing out European products from its domestic market.”

Data from Allianz showed that China’s global export market share has continued to increase, from less than 4 per cent in 2000 to 14 per cent in 2022.

Meanwhile, the corresponding figure for Germany dropped to 8 per cent in 2022, after a long period of stagnation at around 10 per cent.

“China’s global export share has surpassed that of Germany in three out of four main export sectors,” Allianz said: machinery and equipment, chemicals and a broad category covering computers, telecoms, electronics and household equipment.

The company noted that German machinery firms, manufacturers of internal combustion engine vehicles and producers of specialised chemicals are facing “intense competition from Chinese rivals” backed by competitive prices and state support.

“China has been able to integrate long sequences of value chains domestically, thus providing goods that require less participation of other countries,” it said.

Despite difficulties in the Chinese market, the report said that it remains an attractive destination for investments by large German corporations, sharing figures that showed the country’s direct investment in China increased fivefold between 2010 and 2022.

A survey conducted by the German Chamber of Commerce in China this week found that two-thirds of German businesses in China have observed “unfair competition” when operating in the country.

Both nations have continued to stress the importance of economic ties, even as Berlin moves towards de-risking its supply chains and joins complaints levelled by the West over an alleged overcapacity generated by China’s state subsidies.

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China laps Germany in some exports, turning trade tide and raising eyebrows - South China Morning Post
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