It’s gut-check time for the Detroit Red Wings, in more ways than one.
On the ice, Detroit’s playoff math is still favorable — sitting on a six-point cushion in the Eastern Conference wild-card race — but the upcoming schedule will put that buffer to the test with road games at Colorado and Vegas on tap this week. Upping the degree of difficulty: The Red Wings will face that challenge without top center Dylan Larkin, who will miss the next two weeks with a lower-body injury.
Off the ice, it may be even more interesting. General manager Steve Yzerman has big decisions to make ahead of Friday’s NHL trade deadline. The Red Wings have a chance to snap a seven-year playoff drought by making the postseason this spring. Does that motivate Yzerman to push for reinforcements? Or does he hold tight, in favor of a longer-term view and trust what got the Red Wings to this point? And does any of that change with Larkin’s injury?
To the latter question, the answer is likely not much. Losing Larkin does hamper the Red Wings’ playoff push — losing a top center for what could be seven or eight out of their remaining 21 games is not ideal — but it alone shouldn’t determine whether the Red Wings buy, sell, or some combination of the two. He will return before long, and Detroit’s biggest decisions have always seemed more future-focused than purely about maximizing this season.
With just days to go before the deadline, here’s where things stand on some of the Red Wings’ key choices:
The blue line
Detroit could certainly stand to upgrade the makeup of its defense corps between now and Friday. But with a thin trade market, and a logjam of players that already has the Red Wings scratching offseason addition Justin Holl ($3.4 million AAV through 2026) most nights, it may instead be more likely to see the Red Wings move someone out this week.
There would be multiple reasons to do so, whether as part of an upgrade at the position or just to open up space. Five of the Red Wings’ seven defensemen are already under contract for next season, with No. 1 defenseman Moritz Seider a restricted free agent who is expected to sign a substantial extension. Top prospect Simon Edvinsson, though, continues to thrive in the American Hockey League, where the smooth-skating 6-foot-6 defenseman had 27 points in 48 games entering Monday — third most on the team. He will need a spot in Detroit by next season, if not down the stretch this year.
Between that, Detroit will be tight on cap space to construct its roster next season after accounting for raises for Seider and young forward Lucas Raymond (as well as Patrick Kane, if Kane wants to remain in Detroit). That’s ample reason to try and clear some space on a blue line that is jammed up with bodies and cap allocation.
Holl certainly would be among those candidates, as the odd man out right now. He’s a defensive defenseman with 25 games of playoff experience over the last four years, but his cap hit for two more seasons and a 10-team no-trade list complicate the idea. Other than Seider — who, as the young franchise pillar, is not going anywhere — Olli Määttä is the only Red Wings defender without a no-trade clause, so he could be another option, although he’s been consistently steady and effective for the Red Wings the last two seasons. And Shayne Gostisbehere could qualify as well, as the team’s only pending unrestricted free agent, although his work on the power play, and as an offensive creator in general, would make him tough to subtract from a playoff race.
It may be that Detroit waits until the summer to solve this jam, but with how thin the overall market is, this is an area the Red Wings can afford to subtract from short term if it helps them in the big picture.
What could Detroit add?
Let’s say Yzerman does decide to bolster his team for the playoff push. What should he target?
Really, the Red Wings could improve anywhere on the roster. They could use a top-six left wing, a bottom-six center, or an upgrade on “D” or in goal. So there is a range of potential options.
One relatively low-cost upgrade would be at fourth-line center, where a player such as Nic Dowd or Alex Wennberg would help Detroit by improving the checking ability of its forward group. The Red Wings are deep up front, but most of that depth comes in a similar form: offensively inclined wingers.
The Red Wings have some center depth too, but especially as Joe Veleno has worked his way into more minutes (and, currently, into a top-six role centering Kane and DeBrincat with Larkin out), the team has had to play Christian Fischer as its fourth-line center. The decision to play Fischer at center broke up what had been one of Detroit’s most effective lines, a trio of Fischer, Andrew Copp and Michael Rasmussen.
Dowd, in particular, would give Detroit a shutdown-type center who would free up Fischer to go back to the wing, and also give the Red Wings another full-time right-shot center to ease the burden on J.T. Compher. Dowd is under contract for next season, too, at a highly manageable $1.3 million cap hit, which adds to his value.
Higher in the lineup, two names of note if the Red Wings instead wanted to go for a top-six winger would be Pittsburgh’s Jake Guentzel and the Blues’ Pavel Buchnevich — both of whom would be needle-movers up front. But both also have their complications. Guentzel is a pending UFA at age 29, and while he makes some sense as a bona fide top-six scorer, Detroit’s cap situation next season would make him a tight squeeze to extend, which would be a must to justify the acquisition cost.
Buchnevich, meanwhile, has a year of term remaining, plus more of the size factor that Detroit’s upper-lineup forwards lack, but could have an even higher price tag: the Blues are reportedly seeking a return in line with what Elias Lindholm fetched for Calgary — a first-round pick, multiple prospects, and a good roster player (Andrei Kuzmenko). That’s a steep price, especially for a team that isn’t yet a playoff lock this season.
And it’s worth noting that the Red Wings may not add anything upfront via trade, instead relying on their existing pieces, plus the depth they have at AHL Grand Rapids if needed.
“Maybe the most aggressive move of all, would be no move at all,” head coach Derek Lalonde said last week. “I think that would speak volumes on where our group’s at. … Because (it would mean he’s) confident in the group. And we’re still looking at the big picture, but we’re comfortable with the group too.”
What would be the big swing?
My best guess is that the Red Wings are relatively tame this week. They may not do anything. But it’s the trade deadline: you have to use your imagination at least a little, right?
And beyond a trade and extension for one of the expected deadline-day headliners, such as Guentzel, one “big swing” possibility for Detroit would be to make a move in goal. It may not be the most obvious need on the surface — the Red Wings have already been carrying three goalies all season, and Alex Lyon has been among their team MVPs — but for the right player, with the right amount of remaining term, it’s not the craziest idea, either.
Jacob Markstrom’s name has been out there, mainly linked to New Jersey, but it’s not hard to see him as a fit in Detroit either. He is the kind of proven, top-10 goalie most contenders lean on and crucially, with two years left on his contract after this season, would not just add value for this season. It would be like getting a jump on offseason business, with the bonus of having him for a potential 2024 playoff run too. A similar case could be made for reigning Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark in Boston, or Nashville’s Juuse Saros, although both have contracts that expire in 2025.
Any such deal would likely force Detroit to move money out for next season, ideally from its goaltending ledger. And for that reason, as well as the significant prices any of the three would command, this idea has to be viewed as a longshot.
But this is what a deadline blockbuster would need to look like to make sense for Detroit: still future-focused, in addition to helping this year.
It may be that such a deal is too tricky to work out this season. The Red Wings certainly don’t need to seek out a splashy trade, while already playing with house money this year, and it’s most likely they won’t.
At the deadline, though, you can’t rule anything out.
(Top photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
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