So, what exactly constitutes “a bag” anyway?
In the case of Jerod Mayo, Eliot Wolf, Robert Kraft and the New England Patriots, we’re about to find out. Mayo, the team’s first-year head coach, told reporters at the league meetings in Florida this week the Patriots are still very much open for business at No. 3. That’s especially true, he said, “if someone offers ‘a bag,’ as we would say — you know, a lot of first-round picks — we definitely have to talk about those things.”
There’s good news and … less-good news for the Patriots here. The good news is that New England is in an enviable trade-down spot right now and has a serious chance to kick-start its rebuild by acquiring more premium picks. The more complicated news is that New England also very much needs a quarterback, and its owner seemingly wants a star.
With that all in mind, Patriots beat writer Chad Graff and NFL Draft analyst Nick Baumgardner break down what the Patriots’ trade market at No. 3 might look like — and what those trades could produce for a young team heading in a new direction.
Scenario A: Trade with the Vikings
Proposed deal: Minnesota trades Nos. 11 and 23 and a 2025 third-round pick to New England for No. 3
| Pick | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Olu Fashanu
|
Penn State
|
||
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Ladd McConkey
|
|||
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Blake Fisher
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Notre Dame
|
||
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Trey Benson
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Florida State
|
||
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Ben Sinnott
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Kansas State
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Braiden McGregor
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MJ Devonshire
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|||
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David White
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Western Carolina
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||
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* - via trade
|
Nick Baumgardner: First up is a trade with Minnesota, which for our purposes feels most likely. The “value” of a top-three pick is always up for debate, but we know the Vikings have been aggressive and at least appear ready to throw a bag at someone. I think that likely includes both of their 2024 firsts (including the one they acquired from the Houston Texans this month) and at least a 2025 third-rounder (the Vikings don’t have a ’25 second-round pick). You might even be able to squeeze three first-round picks (two in 2024, one in ’25) out of Minnesota.
Either way, a move like this wouldn’t eliminate the Patriots from dipping into the quarterback waters — they’d just have to do it outside the presumed top four of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy. Even so, Oregon’s Bo Nix is talented enough to win a job and start in the NFL. Not sure I’m ready to go beyond that on his potential upside right now. But if you surround him with quality talent, he could surprise you.
We can see what a trade like this would do for New England’s roster, which needs so much.
My first question is a multi-parter: How likely is a trade down, and how would you rank New England’s positional needs beyond QB?
% of 3rd down pass attempts that resulted in a 1st down in 2023:
48.21 – Jayden Daniels
48.10 – J.J. McCarthy
43.82 – Bo Nix
42.31 – Caleb Williams
39.29 – Drake Maye
37.93 – Michael Penix pic.twitter.com/P867fU48dH— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) February 5, 2024
Chad Graff: Kraft made clear at the league meetings that he really wants the Patriots to land a “top-rate, young quarterback” in this draft, so trading back this far probably would have to return three first-round picks.
But the haul in this mock is impressive. The Patriots’ three biggest issues are glaring and well known: quarterback, left tackle and wide receiver. And this helps address all three spots. Ladd McConkey’s skill set is probably a little redundant given the receiver group they already have, but they’re in such desperate need for talent that they can’t be picky.
Before the league meetings, I thought trading back this far would be about building up the rest of the roster while adding another first-round pick next year to go get a 2025 quarterback. But Kraft didn’t hide that he wants to pick a quarterback this April, which probably decreases the chances of moving back this far — unless Minnesota makes a monster offer.
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Scenario B: Trade twice
Proposed deal 1: Minnesota trades Nos. 11 and 23 and a 2025 third-round pick to New England for No. 3
Proposed deal 2: New England trades Nos. 11 and 68 and a future pick to Arizona for No. 4
| Pick | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|
|
J.J. McCarthy
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|||
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Amarius Mims
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Ladd McConkey
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Cade Stover
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Ohio State
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||
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Kalen King
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Penn State
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Isaac Guerendo
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Louisville
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Myles Cole
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Texas Tech
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Ethan Driskell
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|||
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* - via trade
|
Baumgardner: This is a weird one. But, again, it illustrates the position the Patriots could be in if they make a move.
New England needs a quarterback, yes. But unlike Chicago or Minnesota (or even Denver), the Patriots are not one QB away from flipping their fortunes. They need a lot of help in a lot of places.
I think McCarthy is a first-round talent, and the market is what it is — he’s not going to be there outside the top 10. At the same time, if you’re throwing him to the wolves without any seasoned help in Year 1, it’s going to be a long haul. However, if you surround him with young talent and give him guys like McConkey and Cade Stover to grow with, you’ve got a plan for said long haul.
What’s your read on New England’s preference between the top four QBs, and is there anyone in the group you think the Patriots wouldn’t want?
Graff: Mayo admitted at the league meetings that when he began the process of scouting the quarterbacks, he started with the obvious top three — presumably, Williams, Daniels and Maye. But as the process continued, Mayo admitted, more quarterbacks (including McCarthy, one would assume) climbed their draft board.
“It’s about five guys, honestly, that could come in and be a solid quarterback in the future,” Mayo said.
Mayo especially raved about Maye and said that his abilities have “no ceiling.” I also think they like the way McCarthy plays within structure.
But I’m curious about whether or not they see Daniels as a fit. On the one hand, he is a walking explosive play, and the Patriots ranked last in the league in explosive plays in 2023. On the other hand, Daniels thrives on throws outside the numbers and downfield, and the Patriots don’t have receivers that win in those spots. So it could present a tough adjustment to the NFL for him.
Talked about this on the pod, but Drake Maye doesn't get enough credit for his ability to create with his legs (by design or when improvising).
1st down carries on 3rd/4th down last 2 yrs:
42 – Maye
31 – Bo Nix
23 – Caleb Williams
22 – Jayden Daniels
14 – JJ McCarthy
12 – Penix pic.twitter.com/tkWvUOLEv6— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) February 16, 2024
Scenario C: Trade with the Raiders
Proposed deal: Las Vegas trades Nos. 13, 44 and 112 and a 2025 first-round pick to New England for No. 3
| Pick | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Adonai Mitchell
|
|||
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Michael Penix
|
Washington
|
||
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Mike Sainristil
|
|||
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Roger Rosengarten
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Washington
|
||
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Mohamed Kamara
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Colorado State
|
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Tip Reiman
|
|||
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Anthony Gould
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Oregon State
|
||
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Johnny Dixon
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Penn State
|
||
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* - via trade
|
Baumgardner: This is another awesome haul, so I decided to wait on QB and check as many other needs as possible first. I probably could’ve waited even a bit longer (we’ll get there), but instead, I decided to go with Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. I’m much more trepidatious about Penix’s future than others seem to be, but this feels like his range right now.
Either way, though, look at all the talent he’d get to work with. The Patriots add starters at tackle and receiver before snagging Penix, then select another starting nickel in Sainristil and a developmental tackle in Rosengarten.
Chad, talk to me about Wolf here for a second. We know this is going to be collaborative in New England, but what’s your read on his general approach? His history tells us New England’s not leaving the first round without a quarterback. Would you agree or disagree with that plan?
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Graff: I’d be floored if the Patriots waited beyond the first round to get their quarterback. Kraft is 82 years old; he wants this team to get back to winning very soon. That almost definitely begins with taking a swing on a quarterback in Round 1.
There’s certainly a fair argument that the Patriots should contemplate avoiding QB to stock up everywhere else, so that next quarterback can be dropped into a better situation — but that’s not how the Patriots are viewing it. Wolf seems to be an executive who is going to value traits, which makes me wonder about Daniels as a fit given that his slight size (potentially under 205 pounds) makes him an outlier. Maye (6-foot-4, 223 pounds), meanwhile, checks all the boxes of what a modern quarterback looks like.
Scenario D: Trade with Broncos
Proposed deal: Denver trades Nos. 12 and 76, a 2025 second-round pick and Patrick Surtain II to New England for No. 3
| Pick | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|
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Taliese Fuaga
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Oregon State
|
||
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Keon Coleman
|
Florida State
|
||
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Ja'Tavion Sanders
|
|||
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Spencer Rattler
|
South Carolina
|
||
|
Audric Estime
|
Notre Dame
|
||
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Josh Newton
|
|||
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Nathan Thomas
|
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Luke McCaffrey
|
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Trajan Jeffcoat
|
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* - via trade
|
Baumgardner: Merry Christmas, it’s Patrick Surtain II.
Sean Payton won’t rule out the possibility of making a move for a quarterback this year. Denver does not have a lot of draft capital, though, so to make any significant move it’d have to mortgage multiple future drafts or include a player like Surtain, who’s young and talented enough to more or less equal the value of a first-round pick.
Good thing I’ve added him, too, because I’ve spent this entire exercise worrying I hadn’t done enough to help the Patriots’ defense — specifically, the front. (Surtain obviously doesn’t address that situation.) New England actually got Josh Uche back at a heck of a price. We know they’re talking with Matthew Judon about an extension.
You have to look hard to find people who are high on this year’s edge class, though. (I’m not on that list.) How big of a priority should edge — or defense, in general — be for the Patriots in the draft?
Graff: The Patriots did want to add a defensive starter in free agency, but they weren’t able to. They’ve got last year’s first-round pick, Christian Gonzalez, penciled in as a long-time starter on the outside, and pairing him with Surtain would give them one of the best cornerback groups in the league.
Still, I don’t see defense being much of a priority, at all. In fact, I’d be shocked if they chose a defensive player on Days 1 or 2 — maybe even before the sixth round. They had a good defense last year and return pretty much that whole unit, so they’ll be focusing almost all of their attention on getting offensive playmakers.
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Final thoughts
Baumgardner: From a here-and-now football sense, my opinion is that the Patriots need to move off No. 3 and make sure they’re ready for a rookie quarterback next year. Maybe they already believe they are — I’ve seen worse roster situations for a first-year head coach/GM duo.
I love Mike Onwenu. I like Sidy Sow’s potential. Atonio Mafi struggled last year, but he was a rookie fifth-rounder. The OL isn’t that far away, but it’s going to be young, and there will be lumps. The offense is also badly in need of more speed, both in the backfield and at receiver. Widening the margin for error in the draft is always the best course of action for a rebuilding team. However, I’m not 82, and I don’t own the Patriots.
Chad, of these four situations, which was your favorite? Also, do you think New England’s front office would be in for a trade down, or would it absolutely prefer to stick at No. 3 and pick a QB?
Graff: If the quarterback that the Patriots favor — we still don’t know for sure if that’s Maye or Daniels, although the guess here is Maye — slips to them at No. 3, I think they’re taking that guy and hanging up the phones, even if Minnesota makes a massive offer.
Their scenario gets more interesting if Washington takes New England’s preferred quarterback at No. 2. At that point, I think moving back would become more of an option, albeit still an unlikely one.
Of these, I think I like the trade back up to No. 4 to land McCarthy best. That scenario gets them one of the top quarterbacks in this draft and adds another first-round pick. That would be quite the move, and it would require a lot of faith that Wolf could maneuver the draft board that well.
(Photo of J.J. McCarthy: Keith Birmingham / MediaNews Group / Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)
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