The trade
Carolina Hurricanes get: Center Evgeny Kuznetsov. Capitals retain 50 percent of salary.
Washington Capitals: Third-round pick in 2025.
Dom Luszczyszyn: When Carolina does something that goes against the grain, the best reaction is usually to think, “What am I missing?”
On the surface, Evgeny Kuznetsov looks like a shade of his former self. In the last two seasons, his relative expected goals share has reached new lows — even for him. The Capitals were 0.75 expected goals per 60 worse with Kuznetsov on the ice, the worst mark of any regular forward. With Kuznetsov that’s to be expected; he does things that public expected goals models don’t capture and usually that leads to actual results.
That was the case for most of his career at least, but over the last two years, even his relative impact on goals has been negative. Washington hasn’t been outscoring its problems with Kuznetsov on the ice, problems often caused by Kuznetsov. This season the Capitals have earned just 34 percent of the goals with Kuznetsov on the ice and just 1.5 goals for per 60. His points per 60 of 1.07 is a career low by a wide margin and he’s been just as bad on the power play too.
Even with salary retained this doesn’t look like a move that makes a whole lot of sense, especially for a Carolina team that carries such a structured system. Kuznetsov looks like a system-breaker — in a bad way.
But again: This is Carolina we’re talking about. When the Hurricanes make moves like this, their track record offers them the benefit of the doubt. They believe Kuznetsov’s game can bounce back within their structure and that his dynamic offensive talent can provide some much-needed pop. The Hurricanes’ offense can often be predictable which gives them problems come playoff time. Kuznetsov’s game offers a pinch of chaos that can serve them well.
What they need him to be is closer to the guy he was even just last season. Based on data tracked by Corey Sznajder, Kuznetsov was still above the 90th percentile for scoring chance assists, controlled entry percentage and in the 85th percentile for controlled exit percentage. That speaks to a player who still performs well with the puck despite his poor on-ice results. It’s a skillset that most of the team’s forward group lacks.
Those numbers have also taken a dip this year though and that’s where the risk lies. But if Kuznetsov can get back on track there’s a possibility of a high reward in Carolina’s immediate future.
Washington did well to get a positive value asset for even half the contract, but the fact it was Carolina that was interested should give many pause about what Kuznetsov can bring to the table. I’m skeptical, but if one of the smartest teams in the league thinks he’s still got game, I’m inclined to take their word for it.
Hurricanes grade: B-
Capitals grade: A
Sean Gentille: It wasn’t the first question that should’ve come to mind after the Hurricanes acquired Jake Guentzel on Thursday night, but it probably should’ve been the second or third: Who is going to be his center? Sebastian Aho already has Andrei Svechnikov playing to his left, and Jack Drury, Jordan Staal and Jesperi Kotkaniemi are less-than-ideal fits.
We got what could be our answer on Friday morning, and it’s an interesting one. Kuznetsov — most recently a member of the Hershey Bears, less recently the NHL playoffs’ leading scorer — is headed to Carolina. It’s a move that, like the Guentzel deal, carries an atypical level of risk for the Hurricanes. It was good to see Kuznetsov back on the ice with Hershey in the wake of his time with the Player Assistance Program. Ahead of that, his on-ice performance had been absolutely putrid.
The hope for Carolina, clearly, is that he rebounds enough to bring a reliable amount of skill to their center depth chart. Kuznetsov, at his peak, had that in spades. Guentzel has seen that first hand; when Kuznetsov scored a goal to eliminate Pittsburgh in the 2018 playoffs, Guentzel was on the ice. He was trailing Kuznetsov, in fact.
Carolina doesn’t need Kuznetsov to hit that level, though. They don’t need the guy who scored 32 points during the Capitals’ Stanley Cup run and probably should’ve won the Conn Smythe. They’d settle for the version Washington saw last year, when he put up 55 points and created plenty of scoring chances. The fit is odd and off-brand, especially for a team that plays such an identifiable brand of hockey, but it’s a worthwhile risk. We’ve been begging Carolina to add some recklessness to the mix for years.
Kuznetsov, as a player, certainly ticks that box — and the idea of him setting up Guentzel for a few big playoff goals is as odd as it is fun. There aren’t any top-six centers on the trade board. Might as well roll the dice on a guy who was one not all that long ago.
As far as the Capitals are concerned? Good job. The relationship, great as it was at times, had run its course. Getting an asset for Kuznetsov, and crawling out from under 50 percent of his contract, seemed like it’d be impossible, but Brian MacLellan found the fit.
Hurricanes grade: B
Capitals: A
(Photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
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NHL trade grades: Evgeny Kuznetsov is an off-brand fit but worthwhile risk for Hurricanes - The Athletic
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