Wall Street still has a few weeks before the next earnings season hits full stride, but options traders can try to profit off the preliminary reports that may trickle out in the meantime, according to Goldman Sachs. John Marshall of the firm's derivatives research team said in a March 27 note that earnings preannouncements have been a notable source of volatility in the opening months of 2024. "We estimate there have been 433 preannouncements year-to-date and the average stock has moved +/-6.8% on the two days around these events," he wrote. "This year stocks made positive moves following these events 57% of the time." Further, a potentially busier time for those corporate disclosures is coming up. April sees about 10% of all preannouncements for a given year on average, according to Goldman Sachs. Given that earnings announcements can cause stock volatility, whether they are scheduled or not, this could create an opportunity for options traders to capitalize. Goldman identified stocks have preannounced in April at least twice since 2011, at least once in any month during the past two years, and have attractively priced options. "Given the mostly unplanned nature of these events, we believe investors underestimate their associated volatility," the note said. Two companies that have made a habit of preannouncing in April are CNX Resources and Delta Air Lines . CNX, a natural gas company, has announced preliminary results in April four times since 2011, according to Goldman, while Delta has done so three times. The airline appears to be particularly aggressive with its preannouncements. Delta has done so six times over the past two years, not just in April. And Delta's stock has shown that it can see big swings on earnings-related news. Shares fell about 9% on Jan. 12 when the company announced its fourth-quarter results and trimmed its 2024 forecast. The stock has since erased that drop, but the sharp one-day move likely created some winners among options traders. DAL YTD mountain Shares of Delta Air Lines have rebounded since their Jan. 12 decline. Other companies like hospital conglomerate HCA Holdings and Fidelity National Information Services have done preannouncements in each of the last two years. Health care is a sector that sees a higher-than-average number of preannouncements, according to Goldman, which could bode well for traders interested in HCA. Consumer discretionary is another area that often sees a high number of preannouncements. Best Buy is one of the big consumer brands on Goldman's list. The retailer has done two April preliminary announcements since 2011. Of course, these early announcements can be good or bad news for the stock, but the options trade indicated by Goldman may work in either case. The note highlighted the at-the-money straddles for each stock, with the expiration date coming after the scheduled earnings date. Straddles are effectively a call option and a put option on the same stock with the same strike price. Straddles are more expensive up front than single-direction options, but they can make money whether a stock rises or falls. The trader takes no risk other than the premium paid up front to buy the options contract.
ST. LOUIS — A key governmental official from the east African nation of Rwanda says he hopes his recent visit here will be a first step toward establishing trade and other connections with the St. Louis region.
“For many, this is the first contact we are making,” Francis Gatare, CEO of the Rwanda Development Board, said in an interview. “It’s exploratory, a sharing of opportunities.”
Gatare, whose four-day stay ended Tuesday, met with officials with Bayer and other area businesses and organizations such as BioSTL, which aims to spur life sciences startups.
Connections also were made with Washington University and St. Louis University. He was hosted by the Clayton-based World Trade Center St. Louis.
Gatare met with Mayor Tishaura O. Jones at St. Louis City Hall and discussed the possibility of adding the Rwandan capital of Kigali as St. Louis’ 17th sister city. A St. Louis trade mission to Rwanda also could be in the works, Gatare said.
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Tim Nowak, the World Trade Center’s executive director, said Gatare became interested in St. Louis while talking with two St. Louisans at the World Travel and Tourism Council’s annual global summit in Kigali last year.
They are Arnold Donald, the retired CEO of the Carnival Corp. cruise line and a former tourism council chairman, and Rodney Boyd, a Jefferson City lobbyist who accompanied Donald to the Kigali event.
One stop here for Gatare involved an existing St. Louis-Rwanda tie, at the Donald Danforth Plant Science Center in Creve Coeur.
There Gatare checked in with researchers who have been working for several years with Rwanda and other African nations on developing a new disease-resistant variety of cassava, a major crop on that continent.
“It’s remarkable work they do there,” he said.
Cassava is a major food in parts of Africa and has been threatened by cassava brown streak disease, which can destroy entire fields.
Nigel Taylor’s team has genetically engineered a disease-resistant variety of cassava and in 2021 was cleared by the government in Kenya for national performance trials in that country — another step toward eventual regulatory approval and commercial use.
Taylor said his team began working with Rwanda a few years ago.
“Our hope is that the Rwandan government will invest in this product,” he said. “They’re already investing in a way. Their employees in the agricultural system are working with it. We’re using their land to do field trials.”
Taylor noted that Gatare in his post is part of Rwanda’s Cabinet. “He’s aware of us; that was very valuable,” he said.
Taylor said Gatare also asked about other technologies, such as developing drought-resistant crops.
Gatare, 56, said it’s too soon to know exactly what trade connections might develop with the St. Louis area. But he said he envisioned that deals could eventually come about with area companies that finance businesses or supply equipment in various fields.
View life in St. Louis through the Post-Dispatch photographers' lenses. Edited by Jenna Jones.
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If you hit the rewind button to two years ago, the Chicago Bears quarterback situation was on the mind of every diehard Bears fan. Looking back, we should be happy they didn't make a trade for Russell Wilson.
Had the Bears pulled off a deal for Wilson, we'd be in terrible shape in terms of draft capital and cap space.
After a 2021 season that saw longtime head coach Matt Nagy fired, the Bears had a quarterback carousel featuring starts from Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, and Nick Foles, per Pro Football Reference. None of them are on the Bears anymore. Foles wasn't even on a team last season.
The following offseason was full of many questions. Many thought the answer to the Bears quarterback woes was to trade for Russell Wilson and let Fields be a backup until Wilson was ready to give up the starting gig.
We should all be thankful this trade didn't work out. A Russel Wilson trade would've set the franchise back years.
Wilson would end up becoming the Denver Broncos' problem. And a very, very expensive one. The Broncos gave up an embarrassment of riches for Wilson, giving up two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-rounder & players Drew Lock, Shelby Harris, and Noah Fant. They also signed Russ to a five-year, $245 million contract.
This blockbuster trade seemed like the right move at the time, especially when you factor in the Broncos were a quarterback carousel for seven years after Peyton Manning retired. The Bears, a franchise notorious for below-average quarterbacks, felt like they missed out on the guy who could get them another Super Bowl ring.
Knowing what we know now, the Bears dodged a bullet. Wilson proved he was washed up was ran out of Denver within two years. Meanwhile, the Seahawks capitalized on all the picks they received and rebuilt their team, turning those picks into mainstays like Charles Cross and Devon Witherspoon.
The Russell Wilson trade is often compared to the Herschel Walker trade, which allowed the Dallas Cowboys to win three Super Bowls in four years in the 1990s.
Instead of trading for Russ and letting him cook, the Bears elected to stick with Fields, trade away the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft, and are now in a position to draft the quarterback of the future: USC's Caleb Williams. The Bears are expected to draft him first overall, per CBS Sports.
If the Bears actually traded for Wilson, the Bears would not be in the position that they currently are in.
The Bears would've given up all the high draft picks we earned. The Bears wouldn't have D.J. Moore and Darnell Wright because they would've never had the first overall pick to begin with. The Bears would be in cap space hell after paying Wilson. None of the splash free-agent signings over the past two offseasons would've happened. No T.J. Edwards, Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, Montez Sweat or Nate Davis.
Ironically, Wilson and Fields are on the same team now. Both ended up with the Pittsburgh Steelers. It will be interesting to see how the Steelers' season plays out, especially from the perspective of a Bears fan.
As the Bears prepare for the Caleb Williams era, we should be thankful we played our cards right.
The Toronto Maple Leafs made a surprising move one year ago when they traded Rasmus Sandin to the Washington Capitals at last year's trade deadline.
The Toronto Maple Leafs were forced to make a decision on Sandin, who had just turned 23 (which doesn't sound old, but it's five years after he was drafted) because he was at the point in his career where he was about to change from a prospect to just another player who hadn't quite established himself.
With the acquisition of Jake McCabe, the Leafs had too many left-side defenders and no real place to play Sandin. They had just picked up Erik Gustuffson and Luke Schenn to play the right side, but already had Rielly, McCabe and Giordano on the left.
Sitting Sandin in the playoffs would destroy his value, but he was just 23 and had excellent statistics so the Leafs were able to get a late first round pick for him.
At it's core the trade was almost an automatic win for the Leafs, since they had drafted Sandin with a late first round pick in 2018, got to use him for 140 games, then traded him for practically the same pick they use don him.
But we all no trades have much more context than that, so let's see how things have worked out a year later. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).
This is a hard trade to evaluate. I was a huge Sandin fan and I immediately panned the trade when it happened. A year later though, and I think it was a good move.
It's hard to draft and develop defenseman, and the Leafs seem to be worse at it than most. How then can you put a positive spin on giving up on perhaps the best one they've drafted since Morgan Rielly?
The reason this trade works out is that the Leafs currently have Morgan Rielly and Jake McCabe on the left side, and have elected to go with the stay-at-home route with the bottom of their lineup (Edmundson, Lyubushkin, Benoit, Giordano) so once again, there is no real place for Sandin to play in the Leafs lineup.
Additionally, and this is the biggest factor, they chose Easton Cowen with the draft pick they recieved for Sandin. Cowen is tearing up the OHL and has become the Leafs top prospect with the duel graduations of Joseph Woll and Matthew Knies to the NHL.
At this point, I think it's clear that Sandin is an average to slightly above average top-four defender who isn't a star and likely won't become one. Everyone who cares about such things would likely prefer the Cowen's potential right now to a good but not great defender.
After an incredible, nearly point-per-game run last year (15 in 19 games) after being traded, Sandin has come back to earth and has just 23 points in 63 games this year.
He averages the most minutes per game on the Capitals at 5v5, but seems mismatched for such a role. He has a 46% Corsi, 46% Expected Goals rating, and the Capitals are losing his minutes by real goals as well, scoring just 46% of the time with him on the ice.
These are the kinds of numbers you like to see when you punt on a player. The fact that the Leafs timed it perfectly and received a first round pick for him is an added bonus, made even better because, as a competing team it's important for any competent GM to trade the first rounder to get better in the present.
Sandin allowed the Leafs to trade their pick and get one back - one, it just so happens that is looking like a winning lottery ticket at this point.
I'm glad Sandin is getting a chance to play on the Capitals in a role he'd never get the opportunity for on the Leafs, but based on his current numbers I was wrong about how good he'd be, and a year later, I can say I was wrong about my take on the trade at the time.
Sandin was Kyle Dubas' last move as the Leafs GM and it seems he went out in style.,
ATLANTA — The Celtics and 76ers surprised many before the trade deadline by swinging a deal that sent guard prospect Jaden Springer between the rivals in the middle of his rookie contract in an effective salary dump. While Springer’s arrival — carrying defensive promise and youth — drew most of the coverage and attention last month, Boston quietly made a corresponding move to maintain roster flexibility and save tax money, trading Dalano Banton to Portland for a second-round pick (almost certain to not convey).
“I wasn’t bummed,” Banton told CLNS Media/CelticsBlog on Wednesday before his Blazers faced the Hawks. “It’s the NBA. It’s the business side of things. You’ve gotta be able to push through things that come your way. We know how it is as players, so it’s nothing to be bummed about ... it was a great opportunity (in Boston), great organization. Wish them the best and thank them for helping me prepare for my opportunity here.”
Banton started and unloaded one of his most dominant performances as a pro in a loss to the Hawks. He scored 31 points in 37 minutes, shot 13-for-23, hit five threes in 11 tries while posting five rebounds, nine assists and a pair of steals. In twenty-two games with Portland, he’s averaging 15.7 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists, shooting 43.2% from the field and 36.2% from three.
Scores of Blazers injuries, including to former Celtic Malcolm Brogdon, gave Banton free rein at the point guard position. An obvious factor in his big numbers. Between Boston and Portland, his minutes increased by 20 per game, he’s taking 11.3 more shot attempts each night and unloading over five threes after averaging 0.7 per appearance with the Celtics.
“He’s always been talented,” Derrick White said on Thursday. “A guy that can score the ball in many different ways. He’s getting a chance to show that for everybody else. It’s good to see him going out there, being aggressive and showing that world what he can do. The NBA is kind of tough, where you’re at, your role and your opportunity. He was always working hard and he was ready for it.”
“Not every situation is the same. Obviously, what we asked him to do here was not to do that, and obviously, whatever is his situation in Portland is, they’re asking him to do something like that. So you just gotta understand your role, understand your situation. He played well for us when he got his time and he’s playing well for them.”
The Celtics tried to find pockets, including a spot start at Philadelphia, to integrate Banton in a crowded back court and forward position after signing him to a two-year flier last summer. He participated in Summer League, showed up to Boston early to learn the offseason and how to screen more often playing off-ball. Early preseason results showed promise, but he struggled immensely to put the ball in the basket when the regular season began — shooting 37.3% from the field and 12.5% from three.
Former Toronto head coach Nick Nurse commented early this season how some days he looked great, and others not so much. Even his current head coach Chauncey Billups admitted this statistical output probably isn’t an accurate depiction on who Banton will be when Portland progresses in its rebuild. The Blazers have an opportunity to pick up his second-year $2.2 million team option Boston initially received in the contract. He turns 25 next season.
“He’s a scorer,” Billups said. “Obviously, you guys are seeing him play with other guys that are real role players. So, I don’t think this is Dalano, where he’s getting 28 and 30 and 26 (points), but he’s capable of doing that. Guys like him, when you have a full deck and you have everybody out there, you don’t have those type of opportunities, but he’s a guy that can come off the bench and get hot for you ... it’s guys like that who sit on these benches for a long time that finally get an opportunity to show that they can play and that they belong, that’s exactly what he’s done. He’s been a pleasant surprise. He’s much better than I even thought he was. I’ve only coached against him a few times and those were spot minutes.”
Payton Pritchard similarly emerged late this season with expanded opportunity (17.7 PPG, 7.7 APG, 51.3% FG, 45.2% 3PT last 6) after signing a four-year extension. Sam Hauser and Luke Kornet will look to prove they can perform as a depth wing and big, respectively, in the playoffs for the first time.
Acquiring Springer showed the team’s desire to develop cheaper young talent deeper on the roster. While early in his integration into Boston’s system, receiving similarly limited opportunities to Banton, Springer continued his offensive struggles from Philadelphia across thirteen Celtics appearances (6-18 FG, 0-7 3PT).
Boston assigned him to Maine while they played in Atlanta on Tuesday, and he scored 26 points on 11-for-18 shooting (1-2 3PT). While he brings more defensive promise, the Celtics might’ve liked the idea of utilizing in small playoff situations, he brings less size and positional versatility than Banton did at 6’8.
It’s too early to say if dumping the latter will cost Boston, more focused on its championship pursuit than the long haul, but it could provide some warning against moving on from a young player too soon. Aaron Nesmith emerged in a similar manner at Indiana and the Celtics never filled their 15th roster spot.
“I don’t know if I agree that every player can play like that (with opportunity),” Kristaps Porzingis said on Thursday. “Dalano definitely has the talent. A lot of it is confidence, knowing that if you make two mistakes in a row, you’re not gonna come out. It’s not that high pressure team. Here, he has a little bit more freedom, I think. That gives him the confidence to go out there, try new stuff, be aggressive and he has the talent to do these kind of things and have these kind of games. So it’s definitely good to see him happy and enjoying basketball like this, and just playing free.”
Superstar guard Donovan Mitchell is in the midst of a second dominant year with the Cleveland Cavaliers, but his future with the organization remains up in the air.
Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert has full confidence that Mitchell will sign an extension, but the five-time All-Star shared otherwise. These conflicting statements are leading to social media buzz around him joining Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat in the near future. Mitchell has been linked with the Heat on multiple occasions the past few years, but his uncertainty about a contract extension raises more questions than before.
“We’ve been talking to him, sure, for the last couple of years about extending this contract,” Cavs owner Dan Gilbert said Thursday an interview with The Associated Press. “We think he will extend. I think if you listen to him talk, he loves the city.
“Too early. There are a lot of things to focus on outside of that right now, to be honest. I’ll handle that when it comes to... I understand you gotta ask that question," Mitchell said in response to Gilbert's comment. "We’re going out there trying to find ways to win a championship."
Mitchell has dealt with multiple minor injuries throughout the season but is averaging 27.1 points, 6.1 assists, and 5.3 rebounds on 46.6 percent shooting. His level of play could boost the Heat among championship favorites in the coming years, joining the Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Denver Nuggets..
His contract extends through the end of the 2025 season before he is faced with a player option. If Mitchell refuses to sign an extension, the Cavaliers' front office may consider trading him with the Heat as a potential suitor.
TAMPA, Fla. – With a lack of infield depth ranking as one of the Yankees’ significant concerns ahead of Opening Day, the club acquired versatile speedster Jon Berti from the Marlins on Wednesday afternoon as part of a three-team trade.
The other pieces of the three-team trade saw the Yankees ship catcher Ben Rortvedt to the Rays while shipping outfielder John Cruz, the Yankees’ No. 28 prospect, to Miami. Rays outfield prospect Shane Sasaki, who was not ranked among the club's Top 30 prospects, has been dealt to the Marlins.
“I’m really excited about this. I feel like we’re getting a really good player,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said.
Berti exited the Marlins’ workout on Wednesday and is traveling to join the Yankees in Houston, where the Bombers are set to open the regular season against the Astros.
Boone said that he was not sure if Berti’s travel would allow him to be in the Opening Day lineup, but Berti is expected to play regularly at third base while DJ LeMahieu recovers from a bone bruise in his right foot. LeMahieu has been limited in his workouts due to swelling and is set to undergo another MRI on Friday.
“With DJ being down, [Berti] very much figures in the third-base mix,” Boone said. “Hopefully once we’re whole, he serves as a guy that can play all over the infield, and can even play some outfield. Quality hitter, bat-to-ball, can steal a base. I think he’s a really good addition for us.”
Berti is likely to start over Oswaldo Cabrera, who was in line to serve as the Opening Day third baseman before Wednesday’s trade. Boone said that Cabrera is his envisioned backup at several infield positions, while infielder-outfielder Jahmai Jones is also on the roster.
“Before a few hours ago, I was concerned about our infield depth and our bench, how we were going to maneuver that,” Boone said. “I feel like that improved a lot today.”
The 34-year-old Berti batted .294/.344/.405 with 16 doubles, three triples, seven home runs and 16 stolen bases for Miami in 2023, spending most of his time at shortstop and third base. He also made 15 appearances at second base and 19 in the outfield. In 2022, Berti led all of MLB in stolen bases with 41.
By Outs Above Average, Berti was a plus fielder both at shortstop and third base in 2023. A right-handed batter, Berti debuted with the Blue Jays in 2018 and spent 2019-23 with the Marlins. He is making $2.125 million in 2024 and has a club option for '25.
The U.S. trade representative (USTR) is changing its definition of barriers to trade in its annual report on international trade estimates, throwing out concepts long cherished by the tech industry and drawing the ire of some of the biggest business lobbies in the U.S.
“The NTE Report has received unprecedented attention this year because we are taking steps to return it to its stated statutory purpose. We respect that each government—including our own—has the sovereign right to govern in the public interest and to regulate for legitimate public policy reasons,” U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said in a statement.
The USTR says the change looks at barriers to trade with foreign countries more from the countries’ own sovereign perspectives and less from the perspective of the U.S., which U.S. multinationals say is minimizing their voice.
“By dropping U.S. objections to trade violations, USTR risks giving a green light to foreign governments to raise barriers against U.S. exports or otherwise discriminate against U.S. companies,” the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said in a statement about the USTR’s editorial change.
Technology companies in particular are fuming about the omissions, especially the exclusion of barriers to what they term “digital trade.”
“In the past, USTR has identified regulations like Europe’s Digital Markets Act, the EU’s AI Act, Indonesia and Vietnam’s data localization requirements, and both Australia and Canada’s Online News levies as trade barriers. This year, these barriers were not identified by USTR as problematic or have been significantly scaled back from last year,” the Computer & Communications Industry Association, a technology trade group, wrote in a statement.
The USTR sees the move as a return to the original form of its national trade estimate (NTE) report, which the agency says held national sovereignty in higher regard.
“Over the years, the NTE Report expanded from its statutory purpose to include measures without regard to whether they may be valid exercises of sovereign policy authority,” the agency said in a release.
Companies have been rattled by changes in the direction of U.S. trade policy under the Biden administration and the U.S.’s continued pullback from multilateral trade agreements like the one formalized by the World Trade Organization.
The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), a trade group representing drug companies, the submitted comments for the NTE in October that highlighted “how USTR’s policies are failing to protect American innovation abroad,” calling out licensing agreements in many countries that it said are undercutting its business.
“Historically, Republican and Democratic administrations alike have sought to address these barriers by advancing trade policies and agreements that value innovation, protect IP and champion open trade. Unfortunately, the Biden administration has departed significantly from that approach,” PhRMA said in October.
The group described Biden’s trade policy as “unambitious,” presaging a letter from GOP senators to Tai earlier this month that used the same phrase in regard to agricultural exports.
The senators accused the USTR of pursuing “an unambitious U.S. trade strategy that is failing to meaningfully expand market access or reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade.”
Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Houston Rockets could consider trading young talent like Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green because they "want to take a big, big swing in the trade market," according to ESPN's Tim MacMahon (h/t NBACentral.)
"I don't know if both Şengün and Green are going to be here long term," MacMahon said. "My guess— and I emphasize, guess— is that one or the other would end up getting moved at some point for them when they take their big swing."
The Rockets currently hold the Brooklyn Nets' 2024 and 2026 unprotected first-round picks, and hold unprotected swap privileges on picks in 2025 and 2027, due to the conditions of the 2021 James Harden trade.
That draft capital and the Rockets' young talent could facilitate a significant trade, and MacMahon believes the team will make a move "sooner than later."
This article will be updated soon to provide more information and analysis.
In the case of Jerod Mayo, Eliot Wolf, Robert Kraft and the New England Patriots, we’re about to find out. Mayo, the team’s first-year head coach, told reporters at the league meetings in Florida this week the Patriots are still very much open for business at No. 3. That’s especially true, he said, “if someone offers ‘a bag,’ as we would say — you know, a lot of first-round picks — we definitely have to talk about those things.”
There’s good news and … less-good news for the Patriots here. The good news is that New England is in an enviable trade-down spot right now and has a serious chance to kick-start its rebuild by acquiring more premium picks. The more complicated news is that New England also very much needs a quarterback, and its owner seemingly wants a star.
With that all in mind, Patriots beat writer Chad Graff and NFL Draft analyst Nick Baumgardner break down what the Patriots’ trade market at No. 3 might look like — and what those trades could produce for a young team heading in a new direction.
Proposed deal: Minnesota trades Nos. 11 and 23 and a 2025 third-round pick to New England for No. 3
Trade with Minnesota
Pick
Player
Position
School
Olu Fashanu
Penn State
Ladd McConkey
Blake Fisher
Notre Dame
Trey Benson
Florida State
Ben Sinnott
Kansas State
Braiden McGregor
MJ Devonshire
David White
Western Carolina
* - via trade
Nick Baumgardner: First up is a trade with Minnesota, which for our purposes feels most likely. The “value” of a top-three pick is always up for debate, but we know the Vikings have been aggressive and at least appear ready to throw a bag at someone. I think that likely includes both of their 2024 firsts (including the one they acquired from the Houston Texans this month) and at least a 2025 third-rounder (the Vikings don’t have a ’25 second-round pick). You might even be able to squeeze three first-round picks (two in 2024, one in ’25) out of Minnesota.
Either way, a move like this wouldn’t eliminate the Patriots from dipping into the quarterback waters — they’d just have to do it outside the presumed top four of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy. Even so, Oregon’s Bo Nix is talented enough to win a job and start in the NFL. Not sure I’m ready to go beyond that on his potential upside right now. But if you surround him with quality talent, he could surprise you.
We can see what a trade like this would do for New England’s roster, which needs so much.
My first question is a multi-parter: How likely is a trade down, and how would you rank New England’s positional needs beyond QB?
% of 3rd down pass attempts that resulted in a 1st down in 2023:
48.21 – Jayden Daniels
48.10 – J.J. McCarthy
43.82 – Bo Nix
42.31 – Caleb Williams
39.29 – Drake Maye
37.93 – Michael Penix pic.twitter.com/P867fU48dH
Chad Graff: Kraft made clear at the league meetings that he really wants the Patriots to land a “top-rate, young quarterback” in this draft, so trading back this far probably would have to return three first-round picks.
But the haul in this mock is impressive. The Patriots’ three biggest issues are glaring and well known: quarterback, left tackle and wide receiver. And this helps address all three spots. Ladd McConkey’s skill set is probably a little redundant given the receiver group they already have, but they’re in such desperate need for talent that they can’t be picky.
Before the league meetings, I thought trading back this far would be about building up the rest of the roster while adding another first-round pick next year to go get a 2025 quarterback. But Kraft didn’t hide that he wants to pick a quarterback this April, which probably decreases the chances of moving back this far — unless Minnesota makes a monster offer.
Proposed deal 1: Minnesota trades Nos. 11 and 23 and a 2025 third-round pick to New England for No. 3
Proposed deal 2: New England trades Nos. 11 and 68 and a future pick to Arizona for No. 4
Two trades
Pick
Player
Position
School
J.J. McCarthy
Amarius Mims
Ladd McConkey
Cade Stover
Ohio State
Kalen King
Penn State
Isaac Guerendo
Louisville
Myles Cole
Texas Tech
Ethan Driskell
* - via trade
Baumgardner: This is a weird one. But, again, it illustrates the position the Patriots could be in if they make a move.
New England needs a quarterback, yes. But unlike Chicago or Minnesota (or even Denver), the Patriots are not one QB away from flipping their fortunes. They need a lot of help in a lot of places.
I think McCarthy is a first-round talent, and the market is what it is — he’s not going to be there outside the top 10. At the same time, if you’re throwing him to the wolves without any seasoned help in Year 1, it’s going to be a long haul. However, if you surround him with young talent and give him guys like McConkey and Cade Stover to grow with, you’ve got a plan for said long haul.
What’s your read on New England’s preference between the top four QBs, and is there anyone in the group you think the Patriots wouldn’t want?
Graff: Mayo admitted at the league meetings that when he began the process of scouting the quarterbacks, he started with the obvious top three — presumably, Williams, Daniels and Maye. But as the process continued, Mayo admitted, more quarterbacks (including McCarthy, one would assume) climbed their draft board.
“It’s about five guys, honestly, that could come in and be a solid quarterback in the future,” Mayo said.
Mayo especially raved about Maye and said that his abilities have “no ceiling.” I also think they like the way McCarthy plays within structure.
But I’m curious about whether or not they see Daniels as a fit. On the one hand, he is a walking explosive play, and the Patriots ranked last in the league in explosive plays in 2023. On the other hand, Daniels thrives on throws outside the numbers and downfield, and the Patriots don’t have receivers that win in those spots. So it could present a tough adjustment to the NFL for him.
Talked about this on the pod, but Drake Maye doesn't get enough credit for his ability to create with his legs (by design or when improvising).
1st down carries on 3rd/4th down last 2 yrs:
42 – Maye
31 – Bo Nix
23 – Caleb Williams
22 – Jayden Daniels
14 – JJ McCarthy
12 – Penix pic.twitter.com/tkWvUOLEv6
Proposed deal: Las Vegas trades Nos. 13, 44 and 112 and a 2025 first-round pick to New England for No. 3
Trade with Las Vegas
Pick
Player
Position
School
Adonai Mitchell
Michael Penix
Washington
Mike Sainristil
Roger Rosengarten
Washington
Mohamed Kamara
Colorado State
Tip Reiman
Anthony Gould
Oregon State
Johnny Dixon
Penn State
* - via trade
Baumgardner: This is another awesome haul, so I decided to wait on QB and check as many other needs as possible first. I probably could’ve waited even a bit longer (we’ll get there), but instead, I decided to go with Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. I’m much more trepidatious about Penix’s future than others seem to be, but this feels like his range right now.
Either way, though, look at all the talent he’d get to work with. The Patriots add starters at tackle and receiver before snagging Penix, then select another starting nickel in Sainristil and a developmental tackle in Rosengarten.
Chad, talk to me about Wolf here for a second. We know this is going to be collaborative in New England, but what’s your read on his general approach? His history tells us New England’s not leaving the first round without a quarterback. Would you agree or disagree with that plan?
Graff: I’d be floored if the Patriots waited beyond the first round to get their quarterback. Kraft is 82 years old; he wants this team to get back to winning very soon. That almost definitely begins with taking a swing on a quarterback in Round 1.
There’s certainly a fair argument that the Patriots should contemplate avoiding QB to stock up everywhere else, so that next quarterback can be dropped into a better situation — but that’s not how the Patriots are viewing it. Wolf seems to be an executive who is going to value traits, which makes me wonder about Daniels as a fit given that his slight size (potentially under 205 pounds) makes him an outlier. Maye (6-foot-4, 223 pounds), meanwhile, checks all the boxes of what a modern quarterback looks like.
Scenario D: Trade with Broncos
Proposed deal: Denver trades Nos. 12 and 76, a 2025 second-round pick and Patrick Surtain II to New England for No. 3
Trade with Denver
Pick
Player
Position
School
Taliese Fuaga
Oregon State
Keon Coleman
Florida State
Ja'Tavion Sanders
Spencer Rattler
South Carolina
Audric Estime
Notre Dame
Josh Newton
Nathan Thomas
Luke McCaffrey
Trajan Jeffcoat
* - via trade
Baumgardner: Merry Christmas, it’s Patrick Surtain II.
Sean Payton won’t rule out the possibility of making a move for a quarterback this year. Denver does not have a lot of draft capital, though, so to make any significant move it’d have to mortgage multiple future drafts or include a player like Surtain, who’s young and talented enough to more or less equal the value of a first-round pick.
Good thing I’ve added him, too, because I’ve spent this entire exercise worrying I hadn’t done enough to help the Patriots’ defense — specifically, the front. (Surtain obviously doesn’t address that situation.) New England actually got Josh Uche back at a heck of a price. We know they’re talking with Matthew Judon about an extension.
You have to look hard to find people who are high on this year’s edge class, though. (I’m not on that list.) How big of a priority should edge — or defense, in general — be for the Patriots in the draft?
Graff: The Patriots did want to add a defensive starter in free agency, but they weren’t able to. They’ve got last year’s first-round pick, Christian Gonzalez, penciled in as a long-time starter on the outside, and pairing him with Surtain would give them one of the best cornerback groups in the league.
Still, I don’t see defense being much of a priority, at all. In fact, I’d be shocked if they chose a defensive player on Days 1 or 2 — maybe even before the sixth round. They had a good defense last year and return pretty much that whole unit, so they’ll be focusing almost all of their attention on getting offensive playmakers.
Baumgardner: From a here-and-now football sense, my opinion is that the Patriots need to move off No. 3 and make sure they’re ready for a rookie quarterback next year. Maybe they already believe they are — I’ve seen worse roster situations for a first-year head coach/GM duo.
I love Mike Onwenu. I like Sidy Sow’s potential. Atonio Mafi struggled last year, but he was a rookie fifth-rounder. The OL isn’t that far away, but it’s going to be young, and there will be lumps. The offense is also badly in need of more speed, both in the backfield and at receiver. Widening the margin for error in the draft is always the best course of action for a rebuilding team. However, I’m not 82, and I don’t own the Patriots.
Chad, of these four situations, which was your favorite? Also, do you think New England’s front office would be in for a trade down, or would it absolutely prefer to stick at No. 3 and pick a QB?
Graff: If the quarterback that the Patriots favor — we still don’t know for sure if that’s Maye or Daniels, although the guess here is Maye — slips to them at No. 3, I think they’re taking that guy and hanging up the phones, even if Minnesota makes a massive offer.
Their scenario gets more interesting if Washington takes New England’s preferred quarterback at No. 2. At that point, I think moving back would become more of an option, albeit still an unlikely one.
Of these, I think I like the trade back up to No. 4 to land McCarthy best. That scenario gets them one of the top quarterbacks in this draft and adds another first-round pick. That would be quite the move, and it would require a lot of faith that Wolf could maneuver the draft board that well.
(Photo of J.J. McCarthy: Keith Birmingham / MediaNews Group / Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)
China’s factories are churning out more steel, cars and solar panels than its slowing economy can use, forcing a flood of cheap exports into foreign markets.
The oversupply of Chinese goods in key industries is stoking tensions between the world’s biggest manufacturer and its major trading partners, including the United States and the European Union. Its global trade surplus in goods has soared and is now approaching $1 trillion.
The United States and the EU are fretting over potential “dumping” by China — that is, exporting goods at artificially low prices — with electric vehicles among the products caught in the crosshairs.
“Europe cannot just accept that strategically viable industries constituting the European industrial base are being priced out of the market,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told reporters earlier this month.
But China needs to increase exports as a key measure to revive its economy, which is grappling with a protracted property slump, weak household spending and a shrinking population among other problems.
Beijing is now focusing on higher-value exports, after investing billions into advanced manufacturing. But the move is badly timed, coming amid slower economic growth globally and a shift by Western consumers from pandemic-era spending on goods to travel and leisure.
It is also coming up against a push by Europe and the United States to reduce their dependence on China and boost local manufacturing, creating jobs — including through the Net-Zero Industry Act and the Inflation Reduction Act respectively.
“It is hard for me to imagine that Europe would just sit by and quietly witness (its own) accelerated de-industrialization… because of the externalization of low domestic demand in China,” Eskelund said.
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, prices of Chinese exports are at their lowest level since 2009, when the West was reeling from the global financial crisis.
And China’s surplus in goods trade has more than doubled since the pandemic, according to Brad W. Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. In 2019, the country exported an estimated $400 billion more in goods than it imported — a surplus that ballooned to $900 billion last year.
From clothes to cars
China’s exports of low-priced goods got a boost after it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Its economy and heft as a manufacturer have also grown substantially since then.
Having conquered the production of clothing and consumer electronics, China has come to dominate electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines — industries viewed as strategically important in Europe and the United States as they seek to green their economies and reduce planet-heating pollution.
Europe’s solar panel producers have been all but wiped out by Chinese competition, and the same fate threatens its wind industry.
“European companies could fall behind (Chinese manufacturer) Goldwind, which already offers its turbines well below the price of the established (European) manufacturers,” Markus W. Voigt, CEO of the Aream Group, an asset manager specializing in renewable energy, said in a statement this month.
In the last three months of 2023, China’s BYD overtook Tesla (TSLA) as the top seller of EVs worldwide, capping an extraordinary rise for the Warren Buffett-backed carmaker. Compared with Tesla, BYD’s cars are more affordable, which has helped it attract a wider range of buyers. Its entry-level model sells in China for the equivalent of just under $10,000. The cheapest Tesla car, a Model 3,costs almost $39,000.
Alongside “surging EV exports,” China manufactures 80% of the world’s solar panels and makes more wind turbines than any other country, Setser wrote in a recent note. “Chinese policy continues to emphasize upgrading China’s capacity in advanced manufacturing as a major driver of future growth,” he added.
Earlier this month, Premier Li Qiang, Xi’s number two, told China’s parliament that the government would focus on exporting more of the country’s “new trio” of products, namely EVs, lithium batteries and solar panels.
Eskelund of the European Union Chamber of Commerce says the organization is seeing “overcapacity across the board” in China, whether in the production of chemicals, metals or EVs.
“We haven’t seen all that capacity coming online just yet. This is something that’s going to hit markets over the next few years,” he added.
Trade tensions mount
Beijing is aware of China’s overcapacity problem, acknowledging it as an issue for the first time in almost a decade at an annual meeting of senior officials in December.
But on the eve of this week’s China Development Forum, several Chinese state-owned media outlets published editorials challenging the notion that China’s supply glut poses a threat to other economies.
“What China exports is advanced production capacity that meets the needs of foreign customers,” Xinhua News Agency wrote.
Washington and Brussels have a different view, however. US President Joe Biden recently pledged to investigate whether imports of Chinese vehicles pose a national security threat.
“A dynamic auto industry is vital to the US economy,” he said in a statement last month. “China is determined to dominate the future of the auto market, including by using unfair practices. China’s policies could flood our market with its vehicles, posing risks to our national security.”
The EU, meanwhile, is looking into China’s state support for EV makers, which it suspects may be enabling these firms to keep prices super-low, creating unfair competition with European rivals.
European officials are also considering whether existing measures to safeguard the EU steel industry should be extended or adjusted, as well as investigating allegations of biodiesel dumping by China following a complaint by European producers. Biodiesel is a renewable alternative to fossil fuels used in the EU’s transport sector.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said in December that it might impose tariffs on Chinese biodiesel imports if dumping was confirmed.
China, for its part, is fighting back. It said this week that it had filed a complaint with the WTO to contest “discriminatory subsidy policies” for EVs under Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Earlier this year, Beijing opened an anti-dumping investigation into brandy imported from the EU.
If there is a silver lining to China’s influence in global trade, it’s that it should help keep goods prices and overall inflation in check in advanced economies this year, according to Jennifer McKeown, chief global economist at Capital Economics.
“But perhaps more importantly, persistent oversupply and low prices of Chinese goods will add to geopolitical tensions and keep the threat of tariffs and counter-tariffs alive,” she wrote in a recent note. And these could ultimately raise inflation in the years ahead, she said.
Tim Warner/Getty Images
