Last week, Vladimir Tarasenko was rather coy about his mindset heading into the NHL trade deadline.
Tarasenko — who confirmed he recently switched agents to be represented by Craig Oster — declined to say whether he’d had any conversations with Ottawa Senators general manager Steve Staios about his future with the Senators.
“It’s a question you guys will have to ask (management),” Tarasenko said. “I like to keep it behind the doors.”
The Senators inked Tarasenko to a one-year, $5 million contract last summer, hoping he could provide a veteran, offensive punch to their roster. And by all accounts, Tarasenko has enjoyed his time in Ottawa. He has spoken glowingly about the community and his teammates.
He’s on pace for a campaign in the neighbourhood of 24 goals and 60 points, which is certainly a decent season for a 32-year-old winger who isn’t exactly getting prime looks on Ottawa’s first-unit power play. And on the surface, Tarasenko says he’s open to discussing a contract extension that would keep him in Ottawa beyond this season.
“When the talks start, of course we’re going to look at all options,” Tarasenko said. “Like I said, you guys are trying to find something. And there is nothing.”
But if we’re being realistic, Tarasenko represents a prime trade chip for Staios as he closes in on his first trade deadline as a general manager. And if Tarasenko wants to parlay a strong finish into a new contract this summer, his best odds of accomplishing that would be if he landed with a playoff contender.
The Senators, however, are stapled to the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, trending toward a seventh straight season of missing the playoffs. Consecutive regulation losses to the Anaheim Ducks and Chicago Blackhawks last week should extinguish even the slightest embers of playoff hopes in Ottawa.
The Senators are hanging around bottom feeders and are ahead of only the Columbus Blue Jackets, Anaheim, San Jose Sharks and Chicago in the standings. And none of those teams has a trade chip quite like Tarasenko, a six-time 30-goal scorer with a Stanley Cup ring on an expiring contract. In many ways, he represents the prototypical rental piece ahead of the March 8 trade deadline.
In looking at Chris Johnston’s most recent trade board for The Athletic, Tarasenko finds himself within a fairly thin group of wingers who are pending UFAs this summer. The Pittsburgh Penguins’ Jake Guentzel will likely fetch the biggest return if he’s traded, but his injury status could make things a bit murky leading into the trade deadline.
Where is Tarasenko’s game at this season?
With 36 points in 49 games, Tarasenko is on pace to end the season just under the 60-point mark. It’s a pace that is just ahead of last year’s, even when accounting for all situation minutes played.
But there are key elements to the winger’s game that have dropped off, which might raise a red flag for an acquiring team. The most glaring is with what was the most lethal part of his game: his shot.
Tarasenko’s shot volume has taken a huge hit this season. It isn’t just that he is far removed from his peak years — by about 10 attempts per 60 minutes of play — but from recent seasons as well. Not only is he shooting the puck less, but also a lower percentage of those attempts are going on goal. Tarasenko’s shot quality has also declined in all situations.
The fact he is playing less power-play time (under 40 percent of the available minutes) likely has something to do with it. But those dips in his shooting exist at five-on-five, too, where Tarasenko isn’t getting set up with high-danger passes as often as in years past, which might contribute to that lesser shot quality. That doesn’t explain why his puck movement is down, though. Tarasenko isn’t bringing the puck into the offensive zone with possession as often or setting up his teammates’ shots, according to tracking from All Three Zones. Then, there’s the defensive side of his game, which has been an area of weakness this season relative to his teammates.
It might be as simple as Tarasenko needing more support and sheltering at this point in his career to maximize his game. Maybe a contender is better suited for that than the Senators. But it makes a trade for him more of a gamble than in years past if the scoring isn’t sustainable and the defense becomes a liability.
What should the Sens be looking for in return?
About three weeks before the trade deadline last year, the St. Louis Blues landed quite a haul from the New York Rangers in exchange for Tarasenko.
The Blues acquired a first-round pick, a conditional fourth-round pick, then-26-year-old winger Sammy Blais and AHL defenceman Hunter Skinner. (That fourth-round pick upgraded to a third-round selection after the Rangers qualified for the playoffs).
To get that substantial return, the Blues did two things:
1. They ate 50 percent of Tarasenko’s salary. (Last season, Tarasenko was paid $5.5 million in real cash with a $7.5 million cap hit.)
2. They also included defenceman Niko Mikkola in the trade. Mikkola ended up playing a decent role with the Rangers, appearing in 31 regular-season games and all seven of their playoff contests.
So if the Senators want to enhance the return for Tarasenko, it stands to reason they will need to absorb at least some of his salary for the remainder of the regular season.
As our colleague Harman Dayal pointed out earlier this month, it will be difficult for the Senators to replicate what the Blues did last season. A more realistic scenario would see Ottawa fetch a return similar to what rentals like Patrick Kane (2023 to the Rangers) and Taylor Hall (2021 to the Boston Bruins) got in previous years.
In Kane’s case last year, the Rangers sent a second- and fourth-round pick to Chicago. Hall was swapped as part of a slightly larger trade in which the Buffalo Sabres received a second-round pick and Anders Bjork from the Bruins. In addition to Hall, the Bruins also picked up Curtis Lazar.
Armed with a no-trade clause, Tarasenko holds a lot of the leverage heading into the deadline. Tarasenko and Oster can control this process, which might mitigate Staios’ return a little. It’s not like Staios can phone a half-dozen contenders and try to drive up the asking price for Tarasenko if the winger isn’t willing to waive his no-trade clause for certain cities. But the Blues were able to extract a decent return last season even though Tarasenko had a no-trade clause in that scenario as well.
If the Senators general manager can end up with a second-round pick and one other asset — maybe a later draft selection or mid-tier prospect — he has probably done a decent job in this scenario.
The Senators have the 31st-ranked prospect pool, according to The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler’s latest league-wide evaluation of organizational strength in that department. Staios would be wise to nab the highest draft pick he can get to help replenish that depleted prospect cupboard.
Which teams are a good fit for Tarasenko?
Edmonton Oilers
With their recent 16-game winning streak, the Oilers have shown how dominant they can be. But that shouldn’t stop management from trying to get better. At the deadline, Edmonton should look for two key components to improve its chances: depth scoring and defensive support.
It’s no surprise that a lineup led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl is top-heavy. In Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the two leaders are getting a ton of support. But the Oilers could use more help behind them, especially on the wing. Tarasenko could be a middle-six fit in Edmonton, and maybe the Oilers can hope their fast-paced style will help him pick up his rush game.
The Oilers have their next three first-rounders, which could come in handy if they need salary retention. Plus, the team has its 2024 and 2026 second-round picks, which could be a more fitting return at this point depending on how the market unfolds.
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Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes tend to be one of the best offensive creators in the league, ranking highly in shots and expected goals. The results just don’t always match up. At five-on-five this season, they’ve scored 15 fewer goals than expected based on their shot quality, according to Evolving-Hockey. So finding someone with a finishing touch should once again be on Carolina’s radar so it can finally take the next steps.
It was last summer when the team pursued Tarasenko as a free agent. There was mutual interest before the forward ultimately signed with Ottawa. Maybe there still will be over the next few weeks.
The Hurricanes wouldn’t be getting the same frequent-shooting, lethal-scoring forward of years past. But this team has the defensive support to try to balance out his shortcomings and maximize his offensive game in the top six.
Carolina is one of the few contenders that should be able to pull off this trade without breaking a sweat — it has all of its 2024 picks, plus the Philadelphia Flyers’ second, and almost all of its selections in 2025 and 2026. And the team should have the cap flexibility to make this work without retention. The Hurricanes can probably afford to shoot even higher than Tarasenko but should keep their options open for the veteran forward.
New York Rangers
The Rangers have had some weaknesses at right wing for much of the season, and the Blake Wheeler injury only strains that. The key to a deadline acquisition is finding a player who can help elevate the Mika Zibanejad line. So maybe management turns to someone it’s familiar with in that position.
Tarasenko was a fit in the Rangers’ top six during the last deadline. The one problem is this year’s version of Tarasenko hasn’t been nearly as effective, so management would have to be sure a return to New York could fuel a turnaround in his game.
The Rangers have their next three first-rounders at their disposal, but only one second-rounder (in 2024) and one third-rounder (in 2026). But some combination of a mid-to-late-round pick plus a younger skater could be what threads the needle for Ottawa, especially if the forward narrows down only a few trade options, including New York. If the team intends to add at more than one position, it’s more likely it will also pay for some salary retention.
Dallas Stars
The Stars’ No. 1 priority at the deadline is likely depth defense, especially if Nils Lundkvist is out long-term. But Dallas should be all in this year and likely won’t be limited to addressing just one position.
The Evgenii Dadonov injury could open the door to management adding another forward. Ty Dellandrea is currently getting the bump in the lineup, but the Stars might want more certainty than any internal options can provide. That’s where a player like Tarasenko could come into the picture. At his worst, he could be a spark on the third line in a capacity where he would not be expected to give peak performance. And at his best, if the Stars can maximize his game and mask some of his recently developed deficiencies, he could jump to the top six when asked.
The Stars have their next three first-round picks, but that is more than likely an overpayment for how Tarasenko would be utilized in Dallas even with cap retention (which might depend on how Dadonov’s cap hit is handled). The team has its 2024 second-rounder to move and third-rounders in 2025 and 2026.
Minnesota Wild
The Wild might not look like a playoff team right now, but that eighth seed is a legitimate wild card in the West. If Minnesota keeps trending in the right direction as teams around it, such as the Calgary Flames, keep slipping out of the playoff race, management might be inclined to buy at the deadline.
A top priority has to be finding some secondary scoring. The offense in Minnesota rightfully runs through Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy. But this team needs some sort of offensive oomph behind it to have any chance of a finish outside of the dreaded middle.
Tarasenko, even at this phase of his career, could be a third-line upgrade in Minnesota. Or maybe he’d bump Marcus Johansson off the second line and into a more fitting third-line capacity.
With all but one of their picks in the first three rounds over the next three years, the Wild should be able to swing a trade for more secondary scoring.
Boston Bruins
The Sean Monahan trade signaled how pricey middle-six centers will be at the deadline. That might end the Bruins’ hopes of upgrading down the middle considering they are already without their top three picks in 2024 and their 2025 second-round pick.
The best way to upgrade the Bruins’ forward group on a budget might be to add depth wingers at the deadline, which Tarasenko might be, depending on how the rest of the market shakes out.
If Jordan Eberle and Jake Guentzel are available, maybe it will lower the price for the Senators’ forward. The challenge for Boston will be finding the cap space to make this all click, even if it has the assets to trade. But the fact this team has the toughest schedule ahead before even reaching the postseason might push management to get creative.
(Top photo: Richard A. Whittaker / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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