New year, new you.
Or is it, new year, new … New York Yankees?
Look, there were so many surprises in 2023 in the Bronx. Few expected the Yankees to finish 82-80 and miss the playoffs. Nobody envisioned Aaron Judge crashing into a wall and breaking his toe, Anthony Rizzo reeling for months with undiagnosed post-concussion symptoms or Carlos Rodón’s first season being a disaster.
Hey, remember when smoke from Canadian wildfires turned the sky orange and postponed a game? Or when David Wells ripped “woke” culture on Old Timer’s Day? It’s OK, we want to forget, too.
But if you read our predictions, at least you’ll have a head start on the most important things that will definitely happen in 2024.
The Yankees need more starting pitching. As of now, they have Gerrit Cole and four question marks. Rodón (more on him below) and Nestor Cortes are both coming off injury-filled seasons with significant underperformance; Clarke Schmidt just pitched a career-high in innings; Clayton Beeter and Will Warren are unproven commodities. To be a World Series team, the Yankees are going to need more from their pitching staff.
Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber is in the final year of team control before hitting free agency next offseason. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the Guardians are considering moving Bieber but could hold off until the trade deadline in the hopes that he builds up his value. Bieber has lost velocity each year since 2020 and is coming off an injury last season, but he was still effective even though his 3.81 ERA was the highest it’s been since his rookie year. Bieber was at his peak when Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake worked with him in Cleveland, so there’s some familiarity here.
The Guardians could use an outfielder. A package centered around Everson Pereira, who struggled after getting called up, could entice Cleveland, especially with the power he showed in the minors. Attaching a good pitching prospect like Henry Lalane should show the Guardians how serious they are about adding Bieber. Even that package alone might be too much for someone who will hit free agency next offseason, but if the Yankees are treating 2024 as an all-in year, it’s not a bad move for them to consider. — Chris Kirschner
Yankees win the World Series
You read it here first: The Yankees will beat the Los Angeles Dodgers for their 28th World Series title.
They’ll do it in six games. The clincher will happen at Dodger Stadium, where the Blue Heaven on Earth will be simply blue. On the way to the team bus and a flight back to New York City, Aaron Judge will walk past the Dodgers’ clubhouse holding a boombox and blasting “A Milli” — a shot at the Dodgers’ payroll.
Unlikely Yankees hero Alex Verdugo wins the World Series MVP award for hitting .417 with two homers, but stands out for a pair of hustle plays — a game-saving diving catch in Game 4 and racing out a groundball single in the deciding Game 6 that lengthens a seventh-inning rally and puts the game away. With closer Clay Holmes deployed early in what amounts to a bullpen game started by Nestor Cortes, Tommy Kahnle strikes out Will Smith to end it. Jose Trevino tackles him on the mound. A TV camera catches DJ LeMahieu smiling for the first time ever. — Brendan Kuty
Carlos Rodón has an ERA under 4.00
Rodón was one of the worst pitchers in the major leagues this season. Out of all pitchers who completed at least 60 innings, Rodón’s 6.85 ERA was the ninth-worst in MLB. Factoring in his contract status, the Yankees got the worst value out of him than any other pitcher in the sport. To top it all off, he publicly disrespected Blake in his final start of the season. It was simply one of the worst season debuts for any Yankee in the past 20 years.
But Rodón shouldn’t be written off just yet. He battled a forearm injury in spring training that set him back. He then had a back injury that lingered for months and was unavailable. The mental grind shouldn’t be dismissed here either. It’s frustrating for anyone in the first year of an expensive contract to be out for as long as he was while the team scuffled, and he’s supposed to be one of the team’s best players helping it compete for a division title.
I don’t think Rodón suddenly forgot how to pitch. He was one of the very best in 2021 with the Chicago White Sox and in 2022 with the San Francisco Giants. His main problem this year was his lack of command. In 2022, Rodón located 18.8 percent of his fastballs in what Statcast calls the heart of the plate. Opposing hitters had an xSLG of .417 and xwOBA of .279. Hitters weren’t doing damage with those pitches. In 2023, the opposite happened. He threw 20.1 percent of his fastballs in the heart of the plate and hitters had an xSLG of .603 and an xwOBA of .382. Hitters crushed those fastballs and made him pay.
Rodón’s heat zones from 2023 show a pitcher who could not locate either his fastball or slider with the same precision he had in 2022, and it resulted in the worst season of his career. That’s why having a normal routine for Rodón this season could result in him getting back to the pitcher the Yankees thought they were getting. — Kirschner
Juan Soto breaks Aaron Judge’s single-season home run record
With Judge hitting ahead of him, and with a potential half-billion-dollar payday looming in free agency, Soto hits 66 home runs, the majority coming courtesy of the short porch at Yankee Stadium.
After a cold April, Soto catches fire, and soon everyone in the Yankees’ clubhouse is wearing T-shirts emblazoned with the call that WFAN legend John Sterling makes after each one of Soto’s blasts. (Our prediction: “Soto goes loco! Juan, you’re the one!”)
After much talk of Soto possibly participating in the Home Run Derby, he bows out, citing his desire to rest for the second half of the season as the Yankees cling to a 1/2-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles. Soto, who hit a career-high 35 home runs last year, has 37 blasts by the 2024 All-Star break.
He hits No. 60 on Sept. 14 at home against Boston. He breaks Judge’s American League record of 62 homers in Oakland on Sept. 20, and though the ball is caught by noted ballhawk Zack Hample, he agrees on the spot to give it back to Soto — but only in exchange for the rights to play himself in Soto’s biopic. Then, with the division hanging in the balance, Soto clubs four homers in three games against the Orioles from Sept. 24-26. — Kuty
… And then they sign Soto to a 12-year, $550 million contract
If Soto goes out and crushes it for the Yankees like we’re predicting here, he’s going to get paid more than Judge. Some might say another player shouldn’t get paid more than the Yankees’ captain, but Soto will hit free agency at 26 years old and has already established himself as one of the game’s best players. In Judge’s age-25 season, he won Rookie of the Year after hitting 52 home runs. At age 25, Soto has already won a World Series, finished inside the top 10 in MVP voting four times and has a career .946 OPS. He’s going to make bank.
A 12-year, $550 million contract would put his AAV slightly below Shohei Ohtani’s because of how the two-way star’s contract is structured with deferred money. If Soto goes out and breaks Judge’s AL single-season home run record for the most valuable franchise in the sport, this contract seems more than fair. And the Yankees will have to pay him what he’s worth. Judge had all of the leverage in the contract negotiation with the Yankees after hitting 62. Soto will have the same if this result happens. — Kirschner
Volpe responds to the paltry .209 batting average from his rookie year with a .309 mark, 11 homers and 20 steals at the All-Star break. The secret? Yankees chefs learn the exact recipe of his mother’s famous chicken parm. Before every game, a staff member puts a table for one in front of Volpe’s locker. With Frank Sinatra blasting in his earbuds, Volpe clears a plate of chicken parm and spaghetti, washing it all down with a San Pellegrino just before warmups. The Yankees’ marketing machine leans hard into Volpe’s New Jersey roots. Pauly D becomes the Yankees’ official DJ. A recording of his voice screaming “Cabs are here!” plays after each one of Volpe’s home runs. — Kuty
We still don’t know exactly when Domínguez will return from Tommy John surgery. The initial timeline the Yankees gave was 9-10 months from September, which would put a potential return around June or July. For argument’s sake, let’s say Domínguez is back July 1. That would give him three full months of the regular season left and roughly half of the 162 games. Gary Sánchez hit 20 home runs in 53 games back in 2016 and finished second in the Rookie of the Year race. Because Domínguez is coming back from a major surgery, there likely will be an adjustment period as he gets back to full strength.
Domínguez had four home runs in just 31 at-bats this season. Predicting he can get 20 in about half of a season coming off of surgery doesn’t seem too wild, but we still don’t know the team’s plans for him when he is ready to return. At least as of now and if everyone stays healthy, I’m not sure where Domínguez fits. Soto will be in right, Judge in center, Alex Verudgo in left and Giancarlo Stanton will be the designated hitter. But these things always have a way of working out. Plate appearances should be there for Domínguez, and I think he will pick up where he left off. — Kirschner
Aaron Boone gets ejected, but only once
Boone has been thrown out 33 times since becoming the Yankees’ manager in 2018. He tied for the MLB lead with the Cincinnati Reds’ David Bell with seven in 2023. His nine ejections were the most in the majors in 2022. But this year? This year will be different.
Boone will be on his best behavior. That is, until June 8.
It’ll be Game 2 of a three-game set with the Dodgers. With Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound, Boone will walk out to home plate to argue about a low strike called to Austin Wells. Immediately, Boone will launch into a tirade, one that rivals his epic “savages in the box” rant from 2019. And after taking a few steps back toward the dugout, he’ll turn and point at Yamamoto, mouthing something slowly but with his voice just out of range of the on-field microphones.
Immediately, social media will look toward Jimmy “Jomboy” O’Brien, whose lip-reading expertise will unveil Boone’s words to Yamamoto: “Give back the jersey.” — Kuty
(Top photo of Juan Soto: Denis Poroy / Getty Images)
"trade" - Google News
January 02, 2024 at 05:07PM
https://ift.tt/X8L7YcZ
Yankees predictions for 2024: Shane Bieber trade, Juan Soto breaks Aaron Judge’s record - The Athletic
"trade" - Google News
https://ift.tt/6QGHp1Y
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar