MLB’s trade deadline is just 50 days away, and by all indications, this trade season will be a lot different than the deadlines of the past several years. The expanded, 12-team postseason field has accomplished everything the league wanted it to from a competitive perspective, as there are now more teams within striking distance of the wild-card spots than ever before. However, as a result, that also means there are a lot more “buyers” and a lot fewer “sellers” at this stage than we’ve ever seen, which could have dramatic effects on how much trade activity occurs and the types of deals that are made.
In addition, other key factors are shaping this year’s atypical trade landscape. The few sellers that do exist don’t have many high-value players of interest to contenders. The mediocre Central divisions in the American League and National League have made it so every team in those divisions, save one, still has a shot at the postseason (some are in better shape than others, of course). On top of that, some large-market teams that aren’t playing up to expectations don’t want to significantly add to their payrolls as the luxury-tax penalties, including the loss of potential draft picks, have made them less willing to extend beyond certain tax thresholds (with the Mets being an obvious exception).
Many teams are looking for help in the form of starting pitchers and/or outfielders, but the inventory for both is currently very thin on the trade market. Therefore, it appears relievers might end up dominating this deadline, which isn’t exactly what fans of blockbuster deals, with star players changing teams, want to hear.
Will this deadline be a “dud”? It’s trending in that direction, but a lot can change — and inevitably will change — leading up to the Aug. 1 trade deadline, and there will be no shortage of storylines regardless.
“It’ll for sure be an interesting market. There are gonna be a lot of contenders out there this year,” Marlins general manager Kim Ng told me on MLB Radio Network’s Front Office show a week ago, adding that trade talks among teams had started to “bubble,” but hadn’t gotten serious yet.
If you’re hoping for a more exciting deadline, like the past two years, the industry will need some teams with top talent to collapse in the coming weeks. For example, if teams such as the White Sox, Cardinals, Mets or Padres crater, they could become the headliners of the deadline because they all have star-caliber players they could look to trade to get younger and fill future needs.
Let’s take a closer look at where things stand. Here are the key factors shaping the early stages of this trade season as we head toward the deadline.
1. The expanded playoffs are “working,” with more teams in the mix, but that means more buyers and fewer sellers
In the National League, 11 of the 15 teams are currently in playoff spots or within three games of the final wild-card berth; all 15 teams are within 7 1/2 games of postseason position, with the Cubs (5 1/2 back in the wild-card race), Cardinals (7 back), Nationals (7 back) and Rockies (7 1/2) bringing up the bottom.
In the American League, 12 of the 15 teams are currently in playoff spots or within 5 1/2 games of the final wild-card berth, and 13 teams are within 8 1/2 games of playoff position (in their division or the wild-card standings); only the Royals and A’s are far enough back to be labeled as definite sellers.
To fill out the 12-team postseason field, we’re poised for a fierce fight, which is great for the sport. But it’s not exactly the dynamic you want if you’re hoping teams will be selling at the trade deadline.
2. Mediocrity reigns in the Central divisions
In the AL Central, the first-place Twins are .500. The top four teams are within 5 1/2 games of each other, and that’s with recent separation created by the fourth-place Tigers losing nine straight. The rebuilding Royals are 14 1/2 games back and selling, but everyone else … well, we’ll see.
In the NL Central, all five teams are separated by 8 games. The first-place Pirates, who lost 100-plus games the past two seasons, are the only team with a positive run differential (+2). The last-place Cardinals were the only team with a positive run differential a few days ago. The fourth-place Cubs are 6 1/2 back in the division but have a better run differential than the Brewers, who are a game back of Pittsburgh. The third-place Reds have some juice and sit just 4 games back after winning 10 of their last 16. How can any of those teams tell their fan bases they’re selling if they stay this close, or have closed ground, come the end of July?
3. Sellers have little to sell
As of today, the only definite sellers should be the A’s, Royals, Nationals and Rockies (and in that order). Let’s look at the talent they have on their 26-man rosters that they might be willing to dangle and contending teams might be interested in.
A) A’s — The A’s have managed to rattle off five straight wins, but they’re 17-50, which is all you need to know about the lack of talent on this team. I projected Brent Rooker to be their lone All-Star, and after hitting 13 homers and driving in 37 runs there should be a market for him. But there really is no other A’s position player who’s likely to be traded. In terms of the pitching staff, reliever Trevor May is probably the only one contenders will target.
B) Royals — The Royals have a plethora of relievers they can use as trade bait, highlighted by righty Scott Barlow and lefty Aroldis Chapman. In fact, they’ve already received calls on both. They also might see if Zack Greinke wants to go to a contender for a chance to get back to the playoffs. He can still trick opposing lineups as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
C) Nationals — Right fielder Lane Thomas, third baseman Jeimer Candelario and designated hitter Joey Meneses could draw interest, as could relievers Kyle Finnegan and Carl Edwards Jr.
D) Rockies — The Rockies never seem to want to be sellers or even active at trade deadlines, but they do have talent to offer. Lefty Kyle Freeland could bolster someone’s rotation and righty Pierce Johnson could be a bullpen target. Among their position players, Ryan McMahon offers positional flexibility and would be a solid target; he is signed through 2027. Charlie Blackmon just went on the injured list with a broken hand, and as a player with so-called 10-5 rights, he can veto any trade. But if Blackmon, who is an impending free agent, agrees to a deal and the Rockies are willing to eat salary, they could move him.
Bottom line: None of these four sellers have much to offer that moves the meter in terms of star power, but they do have quality relievers and versatile players who make sense for contenders.
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4. The trade market for starting pitchers
For contending teams that want to improve their rotations for the stretch run, it doesn’t appear there will be a lot of quality options available. However, things can change, so let’s look at the best starting pitchers who at least have some type of chance to be traded.
A) Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Angels — The Angels are not going to trade Ohtani at the deadline, according to all of my sources with the team. However, if the Angels (36-31) collapse and also can’t extend Ohtani, who will be a free agent after this season, I have a hard time believing they won’t trade him to get as much as they can in return and then try to re-sign him in the offseason.
B) Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs — Stroman can opt out of his contract after this season, and if he continues to pitch at a high level, he almost certainly will do so. The three-year deal he signed with the Cubs in December 2021 has one year remaining at $21 million. If the Cubs drop out of the race and can’t extend him, they should trade him and try to re-sign him this winter. However, keep in mind Stroman has said he wants to remain with the Cubs, and their preference is to keep him as well.
C) Lucas Giolito, RHP, White Sox — An impending free agent, Giolito is the most likely starting pitcher to be traded. He’s had an up-and-down season and will need a strong June and July for the White Sox to get the type of return they’d like.
D) Lance Lynn, RHP, White Sox — The White Sox have a team option for Lynn, 36, in 2024, but he’ll need to pitch a lot better for them to want to exercise it. Like Giolito, he could be traded if they drop out of it.
E) Dylan Cease, RHP White Sox — The White Sox control Cease through 2025 and would have no reason to deal him, but with such a thin starting pitching market, they might receive an overwhelming trade offer for the 27-year-old, who finished second in the AL Cy Young Award voting last year, because of the two-plus years of team control.
F) Jack Flaherty, RHP, Cardinals — If the Cardinals don’t start winning soon, they could dangle Flaherty, who will be a free agent after this season. Given his injury history, they might not want to extend him.
G) Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers — Rodriguez can opt out of his contract after this season and was having a career year before suffering a ruptured A4 pulley in his left index finger. He started to play catch last week and could return in July. But if the Tigers remain competitive, would they trade him?
H) Zack Greinke, RHP, Royals — I don’t know if Greinke wants to finish his career in Kansas City or in a pennant race but plenty of contending teams could use him as a fourth or fifth starter down the stretch.
That brings us to Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Corbin Burnes of the Brewers and Sonny Gray of the Twins, who could be dealt if their respective teams collapse. (Gray will be a free agent after this season. Bieber and Burnes each have another year of team control.) However, barring that type of downturn, I think it’s highly unlikely any of them will be traded because their teams are all going for it this year, and all three have a legitimate shot at playing October baseball.
Bottom line: Of this entire group of starting pitchers, only one to three will probably end up being traded.
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5. The relievers most likely to be traded
The reliever market is deep enough that we’ll once again see a lot of them moved. Here are some of the best relievers who should be on the trade market:
A) Alex Lange, RHP, Tigers — 10 saves, 3.42 ERA, 27 games
B) Scott Barlow, RHP, Royals — 7 saves, 4.18 ERA, 23 games
C) Kendall Graveman, RHP, White Sox — 6 saves, 2.86 ERA, 29 games
D) Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Royals — 2 saves, 2.82 ERA, 24 games
E) Kyle Finnegan, RHP, Nationals — 11 saves, 4.56 ERA, 26 games
F) Pierce Johnson, RHP, Rockies — 11 saves, 7.20 ERA, 27 games
G) Liam Hendriks, RHP, White Sox — 1 save, 5.40 ERA, 5 games (on the IL)
H) Jason Foley, RHP, Tigers — 2 saves, 2.63 ERA, 28 games
I) Justin Lawrence, RHP, Rockies — 2 saves, 3.22 ERA, 30 games
J) Carl Edwards Jr., RHP, Nationals — 1 save, 3.14 ERA, 29 games
K) Zach Jackson, RHP, A’s — 1 save, 2.50 ERA, 19 games (on the IL)
L) Trevor May, RHP, A’s — 2 saves, 7.04 ERA, 17 games
6. The contenders looking to trade for more offense
Several teams, including the Marlins, Guardians, Yankees and Mariners, are looking for offense this trade season. The Marlins are getting very little production from the left side of their infield and need to add more slugging to their overall offense. The Yankees, because of the injuries to Aaron Judge and Harrison Bader, have been using an outfield of journeymen, including Willie Calhoun, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jake Bauers and Billy McKinney. No one saw that coming! The Mariners need a slugger for the DH spot and an upgrade offensively at second base. The Guardians need to add more power around José Ramírez and Josh Naylor in the middle of their lineup. All four teams are playoff-worthy, but they each must add more offense between now and the trade deadline.
7. The contenders looking to trade for more starting pitching
The Cardinals desperately need to bolster their rotation, which is 14-25 with a 4.63 ERA. The Angels always need more starting pitching, which is the main reason we never cover them in October, and this year is no different as their starters have combined for a 4.79 ERA. And how about the Mets and Phillies, whose rotations have posted 4.95 and 4.64 marks, respectively, thus far? An up-and-coming team like the Reds would become a more legitimate postseason contender if they boost their rotation behind Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft (on the IL) and rookie Andrew Abbott. Meanwhile, the Orioles and Diamondbacks could become real threats to win the World Series as soon as this year if they could add a top-of-the-rotation or two mid-rotation starters to their respective rosters. With so few starters expected to be available, the GMs who can pull off these kinds of trades will be true difference-makers for their teams.
8. Deals might be dominated by contenders trading with contenders
If this trade deadline isn’t going to be a “dud,” it will be because contending teams decide to make trades with each other and not just with the expected sellers. I’m talking about trades like the Cardinals using their plethora of major-league outfielders to acquire a starting pitcher from a contender such as the Guardians. (Of course, the Cardinals have to play better to be labeled a contender.) The Guardians need offense, the Cardinals need pitching. You get my gist.
“As we have more playoff teams and more teams who are kind of in the mix, there are fewer devout sellers and clear buyers, so we are having more conversations with all teams,” Twins GM Thad Levine told me this weekend on MLB Network radio. “We are talking to teams about opportunities to ‘buy and buy,’ where two teams that are trying to go towards a playoff berth are talking to one another, so the scope of teams you’ve talked to has evolved.”
Put your seat belts on, folks. This trade deadline is shaping up to be different and it will be fascinating to watch it unfold over the next 50 days, but one thing won’t change: Expect some unexpected twists and turns along the way.
(Top photo of Lance Lynn and Yasmani Grandal: Charles Rex Arbogast / Associated Press)
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