Fantasy Baseball Trade Values: Sell high on red-hot rookie Bryce Miller? - CBS Sports

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On Wednesday night's episode of Fantasy Baseball Today, we had a poll up asking listeners to pick their favorite of four rookie pitches: Tanner Bibee, Bryce Miller, Kodai Senga, and Eury Perez. 

Miller won that one pretty easily, and it's not too hard to see why: In three starts since joining the rotation, he's allowed just one run over 19 innings of work, with seven hits allowed, just one walk, and 18 strikeouts. He's been incredible, even better than Perez (2.79 ERA in 9.2 innings), Bibee (3.22 in 22.1), and Senga (3.77 in 43), and I think it's reasonable to rank him at the head of that class – I have him just behind Perez, who I think has just a tad more upside 

But, if you look at my rankings, you might see that I'm still not that high on Miller. He's 212 overall in my Roto rankings, at SP63 overall. That's quite low, because I'm pretty sure his perceived value is a lot higher than that. And you know what that means: It's probably time to try to sell high on Miller.

That's easier said than done, obviously, at a time when pitchers around the league are posting ugly numbers when they aren't going on the IL. Miller has been a significant find for anyone who picked him up, and I think he's likely to be pretty good moving forward. Miller's fastball is giving hitters fits so far, generating a solid 24% whiff rate and leading to a .093 batting average allowed that is largely backed up by the underlying metrics thanks to how many weak fly balls it generates.

However, the secondary pitches have been pretty middling to date. His slider has just an 11.1% whiff rate and his curveball is generating a solid 29% rate, but the underlying numbers suggest he's been lucky to not get hit hard with it so far. The changeup is mostly just a show-me pitch at this point, as advertised, and when you add it all up, he's been almost dangerously fastball-reliant so far, throwing it 63% of the time. 

None of that is an insurmountable obstacle, to be clear, but it gives him a fairly narrow pathway forward. If he maintains his elite control, it'll work; if the slider starts to play up, that'll help even more. But right now, he's a flyball-prone pitcher who isn't generating a ton of whiffs, and that's a risky profile.

He did strike out plenty of batters in the minors, putting up a 30% strikeout rate last season, so I certainly don't want to write him off entirely. But that rate fell to 21% in the small sample size of this season before his callup, with a diminished whiff rate, too. That, combined with a 2.29 HR/9 led to a 6.41 ERA in four starts before his promotion.

It won't get that bad for Miller, but I do think his hot start is, at least to some degree, a mirage. Whether he settles in as a low-to-mid-3.00s ERA guy or someone who ends up north of 4.00 probably depends on how the slider comes along. If he figures that out, Miller's upside is pretty solid, but probably still lower than someone like Perez. I'm happy to have Miller, but I also think there's room to profit if you could swap him out for someone like Chris Sale or Jesus Luzardo – I would even look into a Miller-for-Carlos Rodon swap if I don't necessarily need someone for the next few weeks. 

Miller should be useful moving forward, but I'm not so sure he has ace upside. See if you can take advantage of his hot start to find someone who does. 

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H2H Points leagues Trade Values

Rank	Player	Eligible	Value	Change From Last Week
1	Ronald Acuna	DH-OF	48
2	Fernando Tatis	OF-SS	46
3	Jose Ramirez	3B-DH	46
4	Aaron Judge	DH-OF	46
5	Juan Soto	OF	45
6	Julio Rodriguez	OF	43
7	Yordan Alvarez	DH-OF	41
8	Mookie Betts	2B-OF-SS	41
9	Shohei Ohtani	DH-SP	39
10	Vladimir Guerrero	1B-DH	39
11	Kyle Tucker	OF	38
12	Rafael Devers	3B	37
13	Bo Bichette	SS	37
14	Freddie Freeman	1B	37
15	Trea Turner	SS	36
16	Pete Alonso	1B-DH	36
17	Mike Trout	OF	36
18	Bryce Harper	DH	35	14
19	Gerrit Cole	SP	34
20	Paul Goldschmidt	1B-DH	33
21	Austin Riley	3B	33
22	Spencer Strider	RP-SP	32
23	Sandy Alcantara	SP	32
24	Corbin Burnes	SP	32
25	Shane McClanahan	SP	31
26	Max Scherzer	SP	31
27	Matt Olson	1B	29
28	Nolan Arenado	3B	28
29	Francisco Lindor	SS	28
30	Kevin Gausman	SP	28
31	Zack Wheeler	SP	28
32	Cedric Mullins	OF	28
33	Marcus Semien	2B	28
34	Aaron Nola	SP	28
35	Randy Arozarena	DH-OF	28
36	Justin Verlander	SP	28
37	Bobby Witt	3B-SS	28
38	Kyle Schwarber	DH-OF	25
39	Framber Valdez	SP	25
40	Luis Robert	OF	25
41	Emmanuel Clase	RP	25
42	Luis Castillo	SP	24
43	Jacob deGrom	SP	24
44	Josh Hader	RP	23
45	Bryan Reynolds	OF	23
46	Ozzie Albies	2B	23
47	Jose Altuve	2B	23	8
48	Zac Gallen	SP	23
49	Michael Harris	OF	23
50	Wander Franco	SS	21
51	J.T. Realmuto	C	21
52	Will Smith	C-DH	21
53	Yu Darvish	SP	21
54	Max Muncy	2B-3B-DH	20	5
55	Shane Bieber	SP	20
56	Corey Seager	SS	20	5
57	George Springer	DH-OF	20
58	Manny Machado	3B	20	-13
59	Adolis Garcia	DH-OF	20
60	Devin Williams	RP	19
61	Julio Urias	SP	19
62	Dylan Cease	SP	18
63	Daulton Varsho	C-OF	18
64	Joe Musgrove	SP	18
65	Xander Bogaerts	SS	18
66	Alex Bregman	3B	17
67	Cristian Javier	SP	17
68	Felix Bautista	RP	16
69	Jordan Romano	RP	16
70	Willy Adames	SS	15
71	Nestor Cortes	SP	15	1
72	Nate Lowe	1B	15
73	Byron Buxton	DH-OF	15
74	Carlos Correa	SS	15
75	Clayton Kershaw	SP	15
76	Alek Manoah	SP	15
77	Vinnie Pasquantino	1B-DH	15
78	Ryan Pressly	RP	15
79	Salvador Perez	C-DH	15
80	Matt Chapman	3B	15	1
81	Dansby Swanson	SS	15
82	Camilo Doval	RP	15
83	Adley Rutschman	C-DH	15	1
84	Tim Anderson	SS	15
85	Kris Bryant	DH-OF	15	1
86	Anthony Rizzo	1B	15	3
87	Sean Murphy	C-DH	15	1
88	Brandon Woodruff	SP	15
89	Christian Yelich	DH-OF	15	1
90	Christian Walker	1B	15
91	Corbin Carroll	OF	15
92	Joe Ryan	SP	15
93	Pablo Lopez	SP	15
94	Ryan Helsley	RP	15
95	Starling Marte	OF	15	-1
96	Logan Webb	SP	15
97	Andres Gimenez	2B	15
98	Teoscar Hernandez	DH-OF	15
99	Logan Gilbert	SP	14	1
100	C.J. Cron	1B-DH	14	1
101	Tommy Edman	2B-SS	14
102	Kenley Jansen	RP	14
103	Rowdy Tellez	1B	14	1
104	Steven Kwan	OF	14	2
105	George Kirby	SP	14	1
106	Yandy Diaz	1B-3B	14	4
107	David Bednar	RP	13	1
108	Nico Hoerner	2B-SS	13	1
109	Anthony Santander	DH-OF	13	2
110	Jazz Chisholm	2B-OF	13	-11
111	Freddy Peralta	SP	12	1
112	Gleyber Torres	2B-DH	12	1
113	Jeremy Pena	SS	12	1
114	Alejandro Kirk	C-DH	12	1
115	Hunter Greene	SP	11	2
116	Lance Lynn	SP	11	1
117	Seiya Suzuki	OF	11	2
118	Eloy Jimenez	DH-OF	11	1
119	Hunter Renfroe	OF	11	1
120	Luis Severino	SP	10	1
121	Jonathan India	2B	10	1
122	Charlie Morton	SP	10	6
123	Willson Contreras	C-DH	9	1
124	Hunter Brown	RP-SP	9	4
125	Drew Rasmussen	SP	9	1
126	Blake Snell	SP	9
127	Tyler Glasnow	SP	9	1
128	Brandon Lowe	2B	9
129	Ian Happ	OF	9	1
130	Jarred Kelenic	OF	8	1
131	Raisel Iglesias	RP	8	5
132	Gunnar Henderson	3B-SS	8	2
133	Nick Castellanos	DH-OF	8	1
134	Paul Sewald	RP	8	1
135	Ketel Marte	2B-DH	8	1
136	Brandon Nimmo	OF	8
137	Jose Abreu	1B-DH	8
138	Jesus Luzardo	SP	7	1
139	Mitch Keller	SP	7	7
140	Josh Bell	1B-DH	7	-1
141	Sonny Gray	SP	7	4
142	Taylor Ward	OF	6	-5
143	MJ Melendez	C-DH-OF	6
144	Ryan Mountcastle	1B-DH	6	-5
145	Carlos Rodon	SP	6	-8
146	Chris Bassitt	SP	6
147	Giancarlo Stanton	DH-OF	5	1
148	Chris Sale	SP	5
149	William Contreras	C-DH	5	2
150	Alexis Diaz	RP	5
151	Tyler Stephenson	1B-C-DH	5	1
152	Anthony Volpe	SS	5	1
153	J.D. Martinez	DH	5	-3
154	Ty France	1B	5	-3
155	James Outman	OF	5	2
156	Nick Lodolo	SP	5
157	Masataka Yoshida	DH-OF	4	-1
158	Mitch Haniger	OF	4
159	Alec Bohm	1B-3B	4	1
160	Javier Baez	SS	4
161	Jhoan Duran	RP	4	-1
162	Jordan Montgomery	SP	4	-1
163	Jose Berrios	SP	4	1
164	Thairo Estrada	2B-SS	4	1
165	Miguel Vargas	1B-2B	4
166	Dustin May	SP	4	1
167	Tony Gonsolin	SP	4	2
168	Lucas Giolito	SP	4
169	Amed Rosario	SS	4	1
170	Alex Verdugo	OF	4
171	Anthony Rendon	3B	3
172	Triston McKenzie	SP	3
173	Jeff McNeil	2B-OF	3
174	Alex Cobb	SP	3	1
175	Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	3
176	Joey Gallo	1B-OF	3	1
177	Ryan McMahon	2B-3B	3
178	Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	3
179	Ezequiel Tovar	SS	3
180	Cody Bellinger	OF	3
181	Jake Cronenworth	1B-2B	3
182	Andrew Chafin	RP	3
183	Merrill Kelly	SP	3	1
184	Jorge Soler	DH-OF	3
185	Luis Arraez	1B-2B-DH	3
186	Josh Naylor	1B-DH	3	1
187	Eugenio Suarez	3B	3
188	Jorge Polanco	2B	3	-2
189	Andrew Heaney	SP	3	1
190	Clay Holmes	RP	3
191	Reid Detmers	SP	3
192	A.J. Puk	RP	3
193	Max Fried	SP	3	-8
194	Nathan Eovaldi	SP	3
195	Andrew Vaughn	1B-DH-OF	3	-2
196	Jack Flaherty	SP	2	1
197	Nolan Gorman	2B-3B-DH	2	1
198	Marcus Stroman	SP	2	1
199	Lourdes Gurriel	DH-OF	2
200	Peter Fairbanks	RP	2
201	David Robertson	RP	2
202	Joc Pederson	DH-OF	2
203	Jorge Mateo	SS	2	1
204	Riley Greene	OF	2
205	Grayson Rodriguez	SP	2	-1
206	Lars Nootbaar	OF	2
207	Josh Jung	3B	2	1
208	Jon Gray	SP	2	1

Rotisserie/Categories leagues Trade Values 

Rank	Player	Eligible	Value	Change From Last Week
1	Ronald Acuna	DH-OF	44
2	Aaron Judge	DH-OF	43
3	Jose Ramirez	3B-DH	43
4	Shohei Ohtani	DH-SP	43
5	Fernando Tatis	OF-SS	43
6	Bo Bichette	SS	39
7	Julio Rodriguez	OF	38
8	Mookie Betts	2B-OF-SS	35
9	Vladimir Guerrero	1B-DH	35
10	Yordan Alvarez	DH-OF	29
11	Juan Soto	OF	35
12	Rafael Devers	3B	34
13	Kyle Tucker	OF	34
14	Freddie Freeman	1B	31
15	Mike Trout	OF	31
16	Pete Alonso	1B-DH	29
17	Trea Turner	SS	29
18	Bryce Harper	DH	28	6
19	Gerrit Cole	SP	27
20	Bobby Witt	3B-SS	27
21	Paul Goldschmidt	1B-DH	27
22	Austin Riley	3B	27
23	Spencer Strider	RP-SP	27
24	Justin Verlander	SP	25
25	Corbin Burnes	SP	25
26	Matt Olson	1B	25
27	Max Scherzer	SP	24
28	Randy Arozarena	DH-OF	24
29	Kevin Gausman	SP	24
30	Shane McClanahan	SP	24
31	Zack Wheeler	SP	23
32	Sandy Alcantara	SP	23
33	Marcus Semien	2B	22
34	Aaron Nola	SP	22
35	Nolan Arenado	3B	21
36	Framber Valdez	SP	21
37	Emmanuel Clase	RP	21
38	Cedric Mullins	OF	20
39	Luis Castillo	SP	20
40	Josh Hader	RP	20
41	Zac Gallen	SP	20
42	Luis Robert	OF	20	2
43	Kyle Schwarber	DH-OF	18
44	Bryan Reynolds	OF	18
45	Manny Machado	3B	18	-8
46	Francisco Lindor	SS	18
47	Ozzie Albies	2B	17
48	Jacob deGrom	SP	17
49	Yu Darvish	SP	17
50	Jose Altuve	2B	17	3
51	Will Smith	C-DH	16
52	Adolis Garcia	DH-OF	16
53	Cristian Javier	SP	15
54	Logan Webb	SP	15	1
55	J.T. Realmuto	C	15
56	Clayton Kershaw	SP	15
57	Ryan Helsley	RP	15
58	Dylan Cease	SP	15
59	C.J. Cron	1B-DH	15	1
60	Xander Bogaerts	SS	15
61	Pablo Lopez	SP	15
62	Salvador Perez	C-DH	15
63	Daulton Varsho	C-OF	15
64	Wander Franco	SS	15
65	Teoscar Hernandez	DH-OF	15
66	Tim Anderson	SS	15
67	Nate Lowe	1B	15
68	Starling Marte	OF	15
69	Byron Buxton	DH-OF	15
70	Corbin Carroll	OF	15
71	Joe Ryan	SP	15	1
72	Dansby Swanson	SS	15
73	Jordan Romano	RP	15
74	Michael Harris	OF	15
75	Shane Bieber	SP	15
76	Gleyber Torres	2B-DH	15	1
77	Alex Bregman	3B	15
78	Devin Williams	RP	15
79	Vinnie Pasquantino	1B-DH	15
80	Joe Musgrove	SP	15
81	Julio Urias	SP	15
82	Willy Adames	SS	15
83	George Springer	DH-OF	15
84	Brandon Woodruff	SP	15
85	Camilo Doval	RP	15	1
86	Christian Walker	1B	15
87	Max Muncy	2B-3B-DH	15	1
88	Corey Seager	SS	15
89	Felix Bautista	RP	15
90	Christian Yelich	DH-OF	14
91	Kenley Jansen	RP	14	1
92	Kris Bryant	DH-OF	14
93	George Kirby	SP	14	2
94	Logan Gilbert	SP	14	1
95	Nico Hoerner	2B-SS	14
96	David Bednar	RP	14	1
97	Nestor Cortes	SP	14	1
98	Matt Chapman	3B	14
99	Rowdy Tellez	1B	14
100	Ryan Pressly	RP	14
101	Sean Murphy	C-DH	14
102	Andres Gimenez	2B	14
103	Carlos Correa	SS	13	-1
104	Jazz Chisholm	2B-OF	13	-4
105	Anthony Rizzo	1B	13	2
106	Jeremy Pena	SS	13	1
107	Freddy Peralta	SP	12	1
108	Yandy Diaz	1B-3B	12	2
109	Tommy Edman	2B-SS	12	1
110	Anthony Santander	DH-OF	12
111	Adley Rutschman	C-DH	12	1
112	Jonathan India	2B	12
113	Alek Manoah	SP	12	1
114	Seiya Suzuki	OF	12	1
115	Masataka Yoshida	DH-OF	11	2
116	Ian Happ	OF	11
117	Steven Kwan	OF	11	1
118	Tyler Glasnow	SP	11
119	Javier Baez	SS	11	2
120	Hunter Renfroe	OF	11
121	Raisel Iglesias	RP	11	1
122	Lance Lynn	SP	11
123	Eloy Jimenez	DH-OF	11
124	Drew Rasmussen	SP	11	1
125	Nick Castellanos	DH-OF	11	2
126	Thairo Estrada	2B-SS	11
127	Brandon Nimmo	OF	10	2
128	Alexis Diaz	RP	10	2
129	Hunter Greene	SP	10	5
130	Paul Sewald	RP	9	1
131	Ty France	1B	9	1
132	Alex Verdugo	OF	9	1
133	Luis Severino	SP	9
134	Brandon Lowe	2B	9	4
135	Ryan Mountcastle	1B-DH	9	-2
136	Alejandro Kirk	C-DH	8	1
137	Jarred Kelenic	OF	8	4
138	James Outman	OF	8	2
139	Ketel Marte	2B-DH	8	1
140	Giancarlo Stanton	DH-OF	8	1
141	Sonny Gray	SP	8	1
142	Taylor Ward	OF	8	-3
143	Chris Sale	SP	8
144	Charlie Morton	SP	7
145	Jhoan Duran	RP	7
146	Jesus Luzardo	SP	7	1
147	MJ Melendez	C-DH-OF	7
148	Ryan McMahon	2B-3B	7
149	Josh Bell	1B-DH	7
150	Jose Berrios	SP	7	1
151	Amed Rosario	SS	7	-2
152	Jorge Polanco	2B	7	1
153	J.D. Martinez	DH	7
154	Alec Bohm	1B-3B	7	1
155	Chris Bassitt	SP	7
156	Nathan Eovaldi	SP	7
157	Gunnar Henderson	3B-SS	7	1
158	Luis Arraez	1B-2B-DH	7	1
159	Joey Gallo	1B-OF	7	3
160	Willson Contreras	C-DH	7
161	Jose Abreu	1B-DH	7
162	Carlos Rodon	SP	7	-5
163	Blake Snell	SP	7
164	Hunter Brown	RP-SP	7
165	Anthony Volpe	SS	7
166	Mitch Keller	SP	7	5
167	David Robertson	RP	7
168	Jose Alvarado	RP	7
169	Tyler Stephenson	1B-C-DH	7
170	Andrew Vaughn	1B-DH-OF	6	-2
171	Clay Holmes	RP	6	1
172	Lourdes Gurriel	DH-OF	6
173	Jeff McNeil	2B-OF	6
174	William Contreras	C-DH	6
175	Carlos Estevez	RP	6
176	Lucas Giolito	SP	6
177	Harrison Bader	OF	6	1
178	Alex Cobb	SP	6
179	Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	6
180	Max Fried	SP	6	-2
181	A.J. Puk	RP	6
182	Lars Nootbaar	OF	6	1
183	Eugenio Suarez	3B	6
184	Anthony Rendon	3B	6	1
185	Andrew Chafin	RP	6
186	Nolan Gorman	2B-3B-DH	6	3
187	Mitch Haniger	OF	6
188	Triston McKenzie	SP	6
189	Cody Bellinger	OF	6
190	Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	6
191	Miguel Vargas	1B-2B	6
192	Jordan Montgomery	SP	6	-1
194	Jorge Soler	DH-OF	6	1
195	Josh Naylor	1B-DH	6
196	Ezequiel Tovar	SS	5	1
197	Charlie Blackmon	DH-OF	5	1
198	Scott Barlow	RP	5
199	Joc Pederson	DH-OF	5	-1
200	Alex Lange	RP	5	1
201	Andrew Heaney	SP	5
202	Jake Cronenworth	1B-2B	5
203	Brusdar Graterol	RP	5	1
204	Reid Detmers	SP	5
205	Cal Raleigh	C	4	1
206	Austin Hays	OF	4
207	Liam Hendriks	RP	4	-2
208	Andres Munoz	RP	4	1
209	Peter Fairbanks	RP	4
210	Jon Gray	SP	4	1
211	Zach Eflin	SP	4
212	Eury Perez	SP	4
213	Kyle Finnegan	RP	4
214	Bryce Miller	SP	4	1
215	Josh Jung	3B	4
216	Merrill Kelly	SP	4
217	Grayson Rodriguez	SP	4	-1
218	Ramon Laureano	OF	4
219	Evan Phillips	RP	4
220	Riley Greene	OF	4
221	Marcus Stroman	SP	4
222	Jake Fraley	DH-OF	4	1
223	Jorge Mateo	SS	4
224	Will Smith	RP	4
225	Taj Bradley	SP	4
226	Tanner Bibee	SP	3
227	Randal Grichuk	OF	3
228	Spencer Steer	1B-3B	3
229	Justin Turner	1B-3B-DH	3
230	Patrick Sandoval	SP	3	1
231	Edward Cabrera	SP	3	1
232	Miles Mikolas	SP	3	1
233	A.J. Minter	RP	3
234	Tony Gonsolin	SP	3
235	Joey Meneses	1B-DH-OF	3
236	Wil Myers	1B-OF	3
237	Kyle Wright	SP	3
238	Tyler O'Neill	OF	3
239	Esteury Ruiz	OF	3
240	Michael Conforto	OF	3	1
241	Jason Adam	RP	3
242	Travis d'Arnaud	C-DH	3
243	Keibert Ruiz	C	3
244	Nick Lodolo	SP	3	-3
245	Bryan Abreu	RP	3	1
246	Whit Merrifield	2B-OF	3
247	Bailey Ober	SP	3
248	Jonah Heim	C	3	2
249	Louie Varland	SP	3
250	Jack Flaherty	SP	2	2
251	Adam Ottavino	RP	2	1
252	Graham Ashcraft	SP	2
253	Jorge Lopez	RP	2	1
254	Triston Casas	1B	2
255	Giovanny Gallegos	RP	2	1
256	DJ LeMahieu	1B-2B-3B	2	1
257	Jose Urquidy	SP	2
258	Craig Kimbrel	RP	2
259	Logan Taylor Allen	SP	2
260	Yoan Moncada	3B	2
261	Danny Jansen	C	2
262	Aroldis Chapman	RP	2	1

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