At one year, I think it realistic to label the Ukraine War a quagmire, with no obvious end. Until recently, China, or perhaps more accurately, Xi Jinping, has been unclear on what involvement it intended.
Last week, a German newspaper reported he was considering supplying lethal weaponry, starting with dual-use weapons like drones but possibly following conventional military materiel. While the report is unconfirmed, it was credible enough the U.S. warned China of serious consequences.
Russia badly needs to replace expended and outdated Soviet arms while China needs Russian energy. That is compelling math. This is bad news not just for the heroic people of Ukraine, but Europe and the US.
Lethal weapons are a red line diplomatically and strategically. China’s massive industrial complex can easily outproduce the combined Western Alliance in sheer numbers of conventional weapons. It will become contentious political issue as Republican support for Ukraine is dropping and their admiration of strong-man dictatorships like Victor Orban of Hungary grows.
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Meanwhile, anti-China sentiment on the right has been intense for years so that an emerging China-Russia Axis will be a pick-a-side moment. U.S. agriculture has much to lose. Grain sales are less worrisome in my opinion due to the infamous bathtub theory of commodity flows.
The almost certain stronger sanctions on Chinese trade that would follow will pressure our flexibility to reroute supply lines. Planter upgrades and combine repairs are already hobbled by ordinary steel castings and machinery tracks as we discover, often to our surprise, where stuff really comes from.
Our business with China is largely for such mundane, low profit components far more than complex technology. While I believe this would be a major geopolitical blunder for China and Russia, our economic and political systems will be tested. Our ties with partners like Japan and Europe and neighbors like Canada and Mexico will be critical.
For my money, Putin and Ukraine in 2022 have too many similarities with Hitler and Czechoslovakia in 1939. Any decision by China to ally with an invader will change Sino-American relations and commerce radically.
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March 07, 2023 at 01:48AM
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John Phipps: If China Sides With Russia, The Move Could Cost U.S. Farmers Beyond Trade - Agweb Powered by Farm Journal
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