The image shows Global COVID-19 spreading across the country over time. Countries marked in yellow-The 95% confidence interval cap for the estimated starting date includes a specific date (that is, the probability that a country has already experienced the first case is over 5%). .. Countries marked in orange-The estimated date of occurrence has already occurred by that date (that is, the date of occurrence indicates that COVID-19 is already prevalent in the country). Countries marked in red-The first reported case has already occurred by that date. Countries marked in gray-insufficient data for dating of origin. The map layer was created using the R package rworldmap version 1.3-6 (https://ift.tt/2TXleEo). Credits: Roberts DL et al. , 2021 PLOS pathogen
The first case of COVID-19 occurred in China from early October to mid-November 2019, most likely on November 17, according to a new analysis using conservation science methods. It has been with.David Roberts of the University of Kent, UK and colleagues publish these findings in an open access journal PLOS pathogen..
The origin of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remains unknown. The first officially identified case occurred in early December 2019. However, with increasing evidence, the original case may have appeared earlier.
To clarify the timing of the onset of a pandemic, Roberts and colleagues Mathematical model Originally developed by conservation scientists to date species extinctions based on recorded species sightings. This analysis reversed the method of determining the date most likely to have COVID-19, depending on when some of the earliest known cases in 203 countries occurred.
According to the analysis, the first case occurred in China from early October to mid-November 2019. The first case was likely to have occurred on 17 November, and the disease had spread worldwide by January 2020. It has grown faster than it has been officially accepted.
The analysis also identified when COVID-19 was likely to spread to the first five countries other than China and other continents. For example, the first case outside of China occurred in Japan on January 3, 2020, the first case in Europe occurred in Spain on January 12, 2020, and the first case in North America occurred in January. It is estimated to have occurred in the United States on the 16th. , 2020.
Researchers say their new methods may be applied in the future to better understand the spread of other infectious diseases. On the other hand, a better knowledge of the origin of COVID-19 may improve our understanding of its continued spread.
“The method we used was originally developed by me and my colleagues to date the extinction, but here it is used to date the outbreak and spread of COVID-19. This new application in the field of epidemiology requires a small amount of data, so understand the outbreak and epidemic of the disease. ”
Dating of the first case of Roberts DL, Rothman JS, Jari I (2021) COVID-19. PLoS Pathog 17 (6): e1009620. doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1009620
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