In the grand scheme of things, Denver's position is pretty enviable. The Nuggets just made the Western Conference finals with two mid-20s superstars, after all, so there's no need to hit the panic button. Yet for the third straight season, the Nuggets find themselves occupying that same "contenders, not favorites" space in the standings that more aggressive roster management might be able to lift them out of. Eventually, the Nuggets have to evolve from a young team on the rise to one committed to winning a championship in the near future.
The obvious solution would be to flip Michael Porter Jr. for a star. No stars are available, though, so the Nuggets will have to get creative. There are pathways to genuine improvement available to them, but it's going to require a level of aggression that this front office hasn't yet shown. Here's everything you need to know about the Nuggets and their trade deadline pursuits.
Needs
- Defense: Denver's defensive flaws are somewhat overblown. The Nuggets rank 13th in defense this season, and that's with opponents shooting over 40 percent on wide-open 3-pointers. Where their deficiencies become more problematic is in the postseason, when opponents can pick on Michael Porter Jr. in pick-and-roll more easily and take advantage of Nikola Jokic's limited utility as a rim-protector. Those are tradeoffs Denver is happy to make. Their blueprint involves elite offense and passable defense. Getting to passable in the postseason means ensuring that every slot aside from Jokic, Porter and Jamal Murray is airtight, though. Right now, they could use upgrades.
- Shooting. Yes, the Nuggets are shooting the lights out right now, but under somewhat precarious circumstances. Jokic, Murray, Will Barton and JaMychal Green are all hitting career-high percentages from behind the arc. Paul Millsap is flirting with 40 percent for only the second time in his career. Zeke Nnaji has already made three times as many 3-pointers in Denver as he did in his entire collegiate career. There is bound to be a bit of regression here, so adding one more shooter would help balance that out a little bit.
- A backup center. Anthony Davis averaged 31 points per game against the Nuggets in the Western Conference finals. JaMychal Green isn't going to cut it against him, and Isaiah Hartenstein isn't up to the job. Another big man to throw at Davis would be helpful.
Assets
- Untouchables: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray
- Probably staying: Michael Porter Jr., Monte Morris, R.J. Hampton, Zeke Nnaji
- For the right price: Gary Harris, Bol Bol, Will Barton, JaMychal Green, Facundo Campazzo, Paul Millsap, P.J. Dozier
- Let's make a deal: Vlatko Cancar, Isaiah Hartenstein
- Tradeable first-round picks: 2021 (own), 2027 (own)
- Tradeable first-round swap rights: 2021-2022 (own), 2026-2027 (own)
- Tradeable second-round picks: 2023-2027 (own)
Cap notes
- By virtue of using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (on JaMychal Green), the Nuggets are hard-capped at the apron ($138.928 million). They have roughly $8.5 million beneath that line.
- The Nuggets have never paid the current, punitive iteration of the luxury tax (introduced in the 2011 CBA). They have roughly $2.2 million beneath that line with which to operate.
- The Nuggets have two trade exceptions: one worth $9.5 million thanks to the Jerami Grant sign-and-trade, and another worth $3.3 million from the Juancho Hernangomez deal at the 2020 deadline.
Expiring contracts
- Will Barton has a $14.9 million player option. If he declines it, he will be an unrestricted free agent with full Bird Rights. The Nuggets can offer anything up to the max in order to retain him.
- JaMychal Green and Isaiah Hartenstein also have player options. If they decline them, the Nuggets can offer them up to 120 percent of their 2020-21 salaries before dipping into cap exceptions.
- Paul Millsap will be an unrestricted free agent with full Bird Rights. The Nuggets can offer anything up to the max in order to retain him.
Possible trade targets
- Low-end -- Garrett Temple: He isn't quite the defender he once was, but he checks most of the boxes Denver would look for in a backup guard. He defends, shoots and moves at a high enough level. Temple will never get played off of the floor in a playoff series, and that has intrinsic value.
- Medium-end -- Victor Oladipo: The Nuggets already have a guard renowned for his defense that struggles to shoot in Gary Harris. In that sense, even the declining version of Oladipo we've seen in Houston would be a lateral move at worst for Denver. If he can return to something resembling the player he was in Indiana? The Nuggets will have upgraded considerably and given themselves the star power they'll need to win a title. The bigger question here is price. Would Denver's ownership pay to keep Oladipo, Jokic, Murray and Porter for the long term?
- High-end -- Aaron Gordon: Jerami Grant was one of the few players in basketball with the physical proportions needed to defend the best forwards in the Western Conference. Athletic, 6-8 forwards are scarce, and the Nuggets lost theirs to Detroit. Eventually, they are going to need to replace him. They'll look into other, more budget-conscious options, but if they want a long-term Grant replacement, Gordon is their best bet. He's not the shooter Grant has become, but he's as capable a ball-handler and a better athlete. He's spent his entire career playing with subpar playmakers in Orlando. Imagine what Jokic and Murray could do for him.
Possible buyout targets
- Guard -- David Nwaba: Denver is generally comfortable devoting minutes to non-shooters, and Nwaba could give them some very good defense off of the bench if he can stay healthy. That's the perpetual question, though, and it might not be worth the risk in the middle of the regular season.
- Forward -- Otto Porter Jr: The Nuggets surely would have sniffed around Trevor Ariza had he made it to the buyout market. Instead, he was traded to the Heat. Beyond Porter, there are no obvious 3-and-D forwards on the market, so he might be their one shot at a free addition in that space.
- Center -- DeMarcus Cousins: If the Nuggets were going to go this route, they likely already would have, but it's worth noting that Cousins and Mike Malone got along well in Sacramento. Cousins is exactly the sort of playmaking big man Denver likes having behind Jokic, even if he isn't nearly the defender Mason Plumlee is at this stage of his career. If the Nuggets want to increase their ceiling a bit, this is a move to consider.
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March 20, 2021 at 12:24AM
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Nuggets trade deadline preview: How Denver can make the leap from young contender to championship threat - CBS Sports
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