A lot of good NBA teams have traded all or most of their future draft picks, and a lot of mediocre to bad teams still want a spot in the play-in tournament. Those dynamics point toward a blah trade deadline, and there is indeed no headliner, with James Harden already in Brooklyn and Bradley Beal likely unavailable, per league sources.
Sources across the league expressed skepticism that LeBron James' high ankle sprain would result in any increased urgency among contenders to add talent. Rivals are operating under the assumption James will be 100 percent for the playoffs, and the Los Angeles Lakers as formidable as ever. James' injury does not increase the number of sellers, or magically return draft picks to contenders who already traded them.
That said, it's dangerous to dismiss any uncertainty surrounding the defending champs and prohibitive preseason favorites. Any teensy change in championship probabilities can matter.
The Beal situation, of course, could shift at any moment. Beal holds most of the power.
Even within the current confines, there are deals to be made centered loosely around one type of team and one type of player.
• The team: Good to great teams that fear the Brooklyn Nets and Lakers, and want one last upgrade -- someone who will not be bought out. Two members of this group -- the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks -- already made moves, with Miami acquiring Trevor Ariza and the Bucks snagging P.J. Tucker. Neither is finished working the phones. The Bucks will search out a reserve guard to soak up the D.J. Augustin void, either by trade or buyout, league sources said. Keep an eye on Austin Rivers.
The Heat remain active. They have kept tabs on Kyle Lowry, sources said, though it might be hard for Miami to cobble an attractive enough package given they cannot trade any first-round picks unless they lift protections on the 2023 pick they owe (who else?) the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Heat do have some interesting youngish players in Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, KZ Okpala and Precious Achiuwa -- with both Robinson and Nunn headed into free agency this summer. (Despite his uneven Year 2, I'd be surprised if the Heat included Tyler Herro in any Lowry deal.)
Of course, Nunn and Robinson are starting now, and the Heat would need a bundle more salary to even approach Lowry's $30.5 million figure. Kelly Olynyk's $12.6 million deal would help, but he is starting too. Do not rule out Miami dealing Andre Iguodala -- whose $15 million salary would unlock some bigger trades -- if they find an impact move, sources said.
• This group probably also includes the Denver Nuggets, Portland Trail Blazers, LA Clippers, Philadelphia 76ers (despite their perch atop the East) and Dallas Mavericks. The most interesting trade possibilities are here.
Two other teams -- the Boston Celtics, armed with a $28 million trade exception and all their future picks -- and the Golden State Warriors might claim membership here, but the standings suggest otherwise.
• As ESPN's Brian Windhorst astutely noted Friday, the deadline from a player perspective could coalesce around power forwards -- with Aaron Gordon, Harrison Barnes, and John Collins highlighted in Windhorst's column. All three have been the subject of heavy trade talk for weeks, though we might get to Friday with only one -- Gordon -- or none having been moved.
Gordon and Barnes represent a different and perhaps more coveted player type than Collins. The latter is somewhere between a power forward and a center. Barnes and Gordon are pretty much power forwards, but they can defend small forwards -- including the apex predator wings heading the Los Angeles teams. (I mean, no one can actually defend those guys. But there is a difference between having a fair shot at not getting bowled over, and requiring urgent double-teams.)
The market for the Gordon/Barnes type is broader than for the Collins prototype, though Collins will draw lots of interest this week and in free agency given his youth and prodigious talent.
The next most coveted player is a smaller/slighter wing who can defend at least some small forwards, which is why Norman Powell, Kelly Oubre Jr., Evan Fournier, and others have suitors.
• The Kings are open to listening on everyone aside from De'Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton, but it's going to take a lot to pry away Barnes and Richaun Holmes, sources said. Both are in the meat of their primes -- Holmes is 27, Barnes 28 -- and the Kings are telling teams they don't consider themselves that far from being a real playoff team, sources said. They are not in as much of a rush as you might think to deal good, in-their-prime guys for prospects and picks.
And given another injury to Marvin Bagley III, why shouldn't the Kings consider Holmes -- enjoying a career season ahead of unrestricted free agency -- their center of the next few years? They might also be counting on another free-agency market largely cool to paint-bound centers. How many teams with cap room will splurge on a center, and how many of those will target Holmes?
• Denver lost precisely this kind of player -- call it the 3.5 -- when Jerami Grant walked to the Detroit Pistons. The Nuggets have sniffed around Gordon, sources said, and he could toggle between forward spots with Michael Porter Jr. on both ends depending on matchups and scheme. Gordon's declining contract expires after next season, right in time for Porter's next mega-contract to kick in -- meaning Gordon's eight-figure salary would only overlap with eight-figure deals for Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, and Porter if the Nuggets choose to re-sign him.
Does Denver have enough? It has three eye-of-the-beholder young players in Zeke Nnaji, Bol Bol, and R.J. Hampton -- plus the ability to trade a future first-round pick. It might not end up a good first-round pick, but the market for Gordon might not get much more robust than solid prospect and decent first-rounder.
The Nuggets could fill out the deal with one of Gary Harris and Will Barton, who could serve as stopgaps for the Magic if they end up moving Fournier; Harris and Gordon's contracts expire on the same timetable. (Fournier is on an expiring contract, and should draw some interest this week. If the Magic -- already with about $115 million in committed salary for next season -- are not super psyched about re-signing Fournier, they should trade him now. I'd peg any Nikola Vucevic deal as very unlikely. The Magic would require an absolute haul to trade the closest thing they have to a franchise player.)
Other teams paint the Nuggets as active in pursuit of an upgrade. They looked at Tucker, sources said, but could not find an adequate deal.
• Lonzo Ball would also be an interesting fit in Denver. The Pelicans' appetite for moving Ball ahead of his restricted free agency this summer has been murkier since Ball's surge in the past month, but the sense among league sources is they would be open to a deal if the offer is strong enough. Teams with cap room to sign Ball this summer have some incentive to pony up now, since the Pelicans will have the right to match any offer for Ball in free agency.
• The Houston Rockets and the Magic have had serious talks on a potential Gordon deal, league sources said. The precise terms under discussion are not 100 percent clear, but best I can read the tea leaves, Houston would have to send out significant draft compensation -- multiple picks -- as part of any proposed Gordon deal.
No deal is imminent, league sources said. But the talks have been substantive. The Magic have generally been conservative with homegrown veteran players, but as I said Friday on the Lowe Post podcast with Bobby Marks, this feels to me like the first time the Gordon trade rumors have meat -- that a deal feels possible, and maybe even better than a 50/50 proposition.
One complication: Gordon will be eligible for a contract extension this offseason, which would naturally factor into any team's pursuit of him.
The Rockets looking at Gordon is interesting because it is not a teardown move. It is a signal perhaps that Houston wants to try to build a competitive roster while staying relatively young -- a tough needle to thread, and not what one might have expected so soon after the Rockets acquired a boatload of draft assets in shedding Harden (plus others in deals sending out Russell Westbrook and Robert Covington.)
But owning lots of future picks from rivals can decrease the pressure a team like Houston feels to tank with its own pick in mind. (The revamped lottery odds have had this general effect anyway.) This season is a sunk cost. The Rockets are 11-30, second worst in the league, and their own first-round pick is subject to the both the lottery gods and a three-team pick swap/key party with the Thunder and Heat.
• The Wolves have long lusted after Gordon, sources said, and they have been perhaps the most active team in the league working the phones in the past month. If you can think of a power forward between the ages of 22 and 30 who might be available or theoretically available, you can bet Minnesota has inquired about him. They are hunting win-now upgrades, but they also appear willing to trade some deeper rotation guys for future picks, sources said.
• Previous reports have tied the Trail Blazers to Gordon, but their real interest level is uncertain from this vantage point. The Blazers also cannot trade a first-round pick unless they lift (with Houston's consent) protections on the 2021 first-rounder they owe the Rockets. The Blazers do have Zach Collins, Rodney Hood (with a convenient midsized contract), Nassir Little, and Anfernee Simons.
In Little, Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Jones Jr., and Robert Covington, the Blazers have four guys who lean toward power forward in terms of skill set on one end or both. Gordon is a quicker one-on-one defender than Covington, and (in theory) a better shooter and more well-rounded offensive player than Jones. Does Portland have enough to acquire Gordon? I would wager the Blazers fall a little short.
What about a smaller wing such as Powell or Oubre? Powell has probably played his way beyond Portland's reach. Oubre is decent, but do the Blazers really need him if they can slide Gary Trent Jr. to small forward alongside their two star guards? Oubre is a longer and more disruptive defender than Trent, but Trent is the far better shooter. I'm not sure there is a Portland-Golden State deal that makes sense.
• The Warriors are listening to lots of potential offers on Oubre, league sources said. They don't seem to feel much urgency to move Oubre, sources said. On the flip side, Golden State seems to be taking a pretty honest view of what this particular roster can do this season -- and might be willing to move Oubre for something that helps it in the future, league sources said. Oubre will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.
• Lowry is the rare player who might be able to swing the championship balance. Several recent reports in the Toronto media have suggested the Raptors are unlikely to trade Lowry, including one report that the Raptors have straight up told suitors they will not deal him. I have not heard that from league sources. Other teams tell ESPN the Raptors have indeed not yet been aggressive engaging on Lowry talks. That does not mean the door is closed. Such doors are almost never closed until the deadline passes.
The Raptors are solid at full health -- a threat to win a first-round series. They have barely been at full health, and have dropped to 17-25 -- three games outside the play-in, with one of the tougher remaining schedules in the East. Trading Lowry would not signal any kind of long-term tank. The Raptors should enter next season with Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Fred VanVleet -- a decent nucleus of two-way players entering their primes.
A Lowry deal would signal that perhaps the franchise and its greatest-ever player are simply ready to part ways -- Lowry to chase another ring, the Raptors in search of more flexibility than they would have if they re-signed Lowry. It would also enable a single-season Tampa tank, with Toronto already way below .500 and unlikely to get anything like equivalent present-day talent in any Lowry deal.
By all accounts, Lowry loves Toronto and his teammates. If he had told the Raptors he preferred to spend the next few months elsewhere, we'd have known by now. The Raptors could always try to re-sign him on a one-year deal to kick the can. Again: We have four days left.
There are only so many places Lowry would go, and only so many of those have assets that would interest Toronto.
I'm not sure Miami gets there unless the Raptors love Achiuwa, who has more or less fallen out of Erik Spoelstra's rotation.
Lowry's hometown Sixers have long been the most reasonable landing spot. They have all their future first-round picks, several interesting young guys -- headlined by Tyrese Maxey and Matisse Thybulle -- and enough salary ballast (centered around Danny Green) to acquire Lowry without also dealing Seth Curry. (They are over the tax.) Lowry would not cost so many picks as to put Philly in the kind of hole most rival contenders are in. They would have another bite at the "win-now" trade apple next season. They need to maximize Joel Embiid's prime, and so it would make sense for them to re-sign Lowry on a short-term deal -- provided ownership is OK with more tax bills.
If Lowry and the Raptors decide to engage, there is a reasonable deal to be made with Philly.
If they don't, why wouldn't Philly turn its attention to Powell? Powell is a borderline lock to decline his $11 million player option for next season, raising a pressing dilemma for the Raptors. Powell is going to get capital-P paid; executives expect a $20 million annual salary.
Do the Raptors want to pay him -- making him their fourth high-salaried player going forward? Maybe. They could always try to sign-and-trade him, but that requires Powell's cooperation. Powell is not a playmaker/organizer like Lowry, and maybe that is the skill set Philly craves given Ben Simmons' limitations in crunch time. He's a worse defender than both Lowry and Green. But Powell is clearly reaching a new level as a scorer. His Bird rights have real value.
• The Pacers have some surface-level volatility that could make them a sneaky interesting trade team. They are 19-22 -- tied for ninth, below preseason (and pre-injury) expectations. Perhaps they think they can make some noise now that Caris LeVert and Jeremy Lamb are back, and the No. 4 seed is one hot streak away.
But the Pacers have $116 million already committed next season, with two outgoing free agents -- Doug McDermott and T.J. McConnell -- slated for medium raises. Several teams have inquired already about McDermott, league sources said.
We know the Pacers almost traded Myles Turner to the Celtics. The Pacers are always pretty good, but they can't seem to reach a higher level with the Domantas Sabonis-Turner double-center pairing. The Charlotte Hornets have strong interest in Turner, sources said, and between Miles Bridges, P.J. Washington, and their future draft assets -- plus Devonte' Graham, about to hit restricted free agency -- they have what it takes to make a real offer. They need a center badly. On the flip side, as a small-market team, they figure to be very protective of their future first-round picks.
LaMelo Ball's potentially season-ending wrist injury shouldn't change Charlotte's approach now in discussing any big man they might view as a longer-term solution. It might reduce their appetite for a one-season stopgap given Ball's injury lowers their ceiling.
• Do the Hornets consider John Collins a center? Maybe. Some teams do; some don't. Collins has made real strides on defense, but there is skepticism he will ever be a back-line anchor of a contender-level defense.
I would place the odds of any Collins trade as something like 70-30 against. He's really good, and the scorching Atlanta Hawks are hell-bent on making the playoffs. They will not shoot this roster in the foot in exchange for future assets unless they hit an incredible jackpot. Otherwise, they will need real present-day talent in return -- something that isn't easy to get with Collins still on his $4.1 million rookie contract.
Does Atlanta fear a max offer sheet? Probably. They could match it, and the post-rookie-deal "max" is the least of all the maximum contracts. Unless Collins gets hurt, it doesn't figure to be too unpalatable. Atlanta could also try to work with Collins' representatives this summer on a sign-and-trade.
• The Pacers take pride in not bottoming out. The safest best this week is therefore a minor deal, or stasis. If they disappoint over the rest of the season, this summer could be interesting.
• One other Indiana name to watch: Aaron Holiday. He has fallen out of the Pacers' rotation. A year ago, the Pacers could have likely received a first-round pick in return for Holiday. Rivals are intrigued by his physical prowess and toughness, but I'd wager against Indiana nabbing a first-rounder for him now. If the Pacers deal Holiday, it would perhaps signal their intention to re-sign McConnell.
• Why wouldn't the Bulls call Indiana about Turner (or Sabonis)? Billy Donovan demoted onetime center-of-the-future Wendell Carter Jr. to a reserve role, and is now starting Thaddeus Young at the 5. Young is almost 33, with a partially guaranteed deal next season. The Bulls could get a lot for him now; a first-round pick seems likely, sources said. But Chicago is signaling Young is not available right now, league sources said -- that he is too valuable to both their on-court play and their locker room.
As with any player, that could change if someone blows the Bulls away with a mega-offer, but Chicago loves Young. (It should. He has been easily the Bulls' second-best player this season.)
The Bulls own all their future picks save one second-rounder, but they don't have a lot of potential outgoing salary that is both desirable and tradable from Chicago's perspective. Lots of teams have called to ask about Patrick Williams, but Chicago has roundly rebuffed such inquiries, league sources said.
• The most interesting Bull to watch this week might be Lauri Markkanen. He is enjoying the best shooting season of his career, but the rest of his game has plateaued. (He's still just 23.) Do the Bulls want to pay him in restricted free agency this summer? Are they worried about an offer sheet from a youngish team like the San Antonio Spurs with cap room?
• The Memphis Grizzlies were my other candidate to make an out-of-left-field trade. They have more rotation guys than they can play, plus some extra picks. They showed last deadline in swapping two rotation players (plus Andre Iguodala) for an injured player (Justise Winslow) they were willing even amid a solid season to weaken their present-day team in trying to bolster the future. Could they make that sort of trade again, and somehow turn multiple players into one? Or could they go the other way: make a minor win-now move that improves the current team but doesn't cost the future all that much?
Memphis has a four-game cushion for the last play-in spot in the West. Jaren Jackson Jr. still hasn't played this season. My best guess is the Grizzlies won't find anything they like enough to get too far out of their patient comfort zone. The likeliest outcome is Memphis trading Gorgui Dieng for something small, and failing that, buying him out after the deadline.
• The New York Knicks are sitting on a league-high $15 million in cap room, and league sources said they are investigating ways to use it now. Could that include a trade for Victor Oladipo? The Rockets might have to lower their ask if they are determined to move Oladipo now rather than risk him leaving for nothing in free agency.
The Rockets could sign-and-trade Oladipo this summer, but a number of rumored suitors -- including the Knicks -- will have cap room to sign him outright. Should any of those teams give up anything to trade for him now? It depends how much they think he would help their playoff push, and on their appetite for paying him big money over many seasons.
Oladipo has not been very good in Houston. He was pretty blah last season after returning from injury. He looked more like his pre-injury self over nine games this season in Indiana, but how much should anyone read into those nine games? How much is Houston's overall dysfunction draining Oladipo's game now?
Before the season, teams with some interest in Oladipo were taking a wait-and-see approach, league sources said. They wanted to watch him play before forking over real stuff for him in a trade. Nothing that has happened since should change that. If the Knicks can absorb his contract for one or two players they don't really need (Elfrid Payton and Kevin Knox II?) and one heavily protected first-round pick, should they do that? Maybe. I'm skeptical the Rockets are getting much better for Oladipo now.
• If the Knicks can't trade Austin Rivers, they could buy him out, sources said. Expect the Bucks to show interest in signing Rivers in that scenario to take some of D.J. Augustin's minutes. Would the Lakers have interest in Rivers as an eager scorer who could soak up some of the shot-creation load while LeBron James and Anthony Davis recover?
There are several available free agents who will happily take shots for the champs: Isaiah Thomas, Jamal Crawford, old buddy J.R. Smith.
The Lakers could get themselves into some pretty interesting trade conversations if they combined Talen Horton-Tucker and their 2027 first-round pick; Horton-Tucker will be a restricted free agent this summer, with the Lakers facing a big tax bill if they bring back Dennis Schroder. (Alex Caruso will be an unrestricted free agent, and Montrezl Harrell can join him by declining a $9.7 million option.)
But good veteran trade candidates tend to make eight figures. Horton-Tucker is earning $1.5 million. The Lakers are also just $1.7 million below the hard cap, meaning they would have to match incoming and outgoing salaries almost exactly in any trade. They don't really have any high-salaried players who are also expendable. The only exception is in theory Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but he was essential in the Lakers' title run and shares an agency with both James and Davis. Also: THT is a big part of the Lakers now.
• The Nets likely will investigate Spencer Dinwiddie trades right up to the deadline, sources said. The Clippers are active too.
Even a blah deadline brings some action!
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