The consensus for the U.S. non-farm payroll report is 1.6 million jobs were added last month, down from 4.8 million positions created in June and 2.699 million in May. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 10.5% from 11.1% and the labor force participation rate to fall to 61.1% from 61.5%. Goldman Sachs, however, forecasts the seasonal adjustment factor, particularly in education services, could boost July payroll growth by as much as 500,000 to 700,000 on the month.
Earlier this week private payroll provider ADP showed a mere 167,000 jobs were added by private sector in July versus forecasts for 1.4 million jobs.
The U.S. economy has shed over 20 million jobs since the pandemic began in March. Recovery depends on those people returning back to work.
In the most recent week, labor market showed some signs of modest rebound after initial unemployment claims dropped to its lowest since the pandemic began at 1.189 million during the week ended Aug. 1. First-time jobless applications declined across nearly all states, suggesting the labor market might be slowly rebounding as new cases of coronavirus infections tailed off sharply last week. Continued unemployment claims, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits for consecutive weeks, also decreased to a better-than-expected 16.107 million in the reviewed week.
Separately, negotiations on additional stimulus are expected to continue Friday in Washington, D.C., and President Trump has threatened to use Executive Order to extend the weekly supplemental $600 payment. Republicans and Democrats, however, remain trillions of dollars apart in their respective plans.
Liubov Georges can be reached at liubov.georges@dtn
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