The developments come ahead of the latest round of phased in state economy reopenings in New York and New Jersey, two states hit hard early in the pandemic, with their governors more slowly allowing economic activity to resume. New Jersey Monday is allowing outdoor dining at restaurants for the first time since March, with the restaurant industry hit hard by the pandemic. Open Tables said as of Saturday, seated diners at restaurants globally were down about 65% against year ago, which is right about where the United States sits. The numbers vary greatly across the globe, with heavy restrictions keeping restaurants closed in the United Kingdom and Ireland, while seated diners in restaurants in Germany are down only 14%. Just under 50% of restaurants in the United States are taking reservations.
Apple mobility trends data shows driving activity in the United States up 43% from a Jan. 13 baseline as of Saturday, down slightly from Friday, suggesting high unemployment and work from home initiatives are dampening demand for gasoline. Gasoline supplied to the U.S. market averaged 7.9 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended June 5, according to the Energy Information Administration, down 1.977 million bpd or 20% against year ago.
The Transportation Security Administration reported 502,209 passengers passing through TSA checkpoints at U.S. airports on June 11, the most since March 20, a week after U.S. President Donald Trump declared COVID-19 pandemic a national emergency, while down 2.17 million or 81.2% against year ago. During the four weeks ended June 5, EIA data shows jet fuel supplied to the U.S. market down 1.14 million bpd or 63.8% at 648,000 bpd.
The pace of the demand recovery for fuels is hinged not just on state government reopenings, but also on how people adapt to the new reality of living with a pandemic. An Ernst and Young found 69% of consumers they surveyed on their expected buying practices and activities going forward said they would not go to a gym, the movies or bars for months or even years.
On Sunday, Reuters reported Iraq and major oil companies operating in the country's southern oil fields agreed to additional reductions in crude production of 330,000 bpd in June. Iraq, which reported crude production of 4.48 million bpd in April, agreed on April 12 to cut their output to 3.592 million bpd in May and June as part of the OPEC+ agreement, but fell well short of compliance. Earlier in June, OPEC+ agreed to extend their collective output cuts of 9.7 million bpd through July before tapering off to 7.7 million bpd for the rest of the year provided all countries adhere to their quotas. Saudi Arabia and Russia were insistent the Iraq and OPEC member Nigeria, also falling well below compliance, make up for the missed cuts in July, August and September.
OPEC+ will conduct its first compliance monitoring meeting on Thursday.
In early trading, NYMEX July WTI was down $0.65 near $35.85 per barrel (bbl), with ICE August Brent $0.40 lower near $38.30 bbl. July ULSD futures were flat near $1.1005 gallon, and July RBOB futures softening about 0.045 cent to $1.12 gallon.
Brian L. Milne can be reached at brian.milne@dtn.com
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