The re-election of Indonesian President Joko Widodo has positive implications for Indonesia and Asean as a whole. The president, popularly known as Jokowi, will have five exciting years to shape Indonesia's future and international profile to his liking. Obviously, with the second term limit, he will be bolder and more assertive, both at home and abroad.
Most of all, kudos must go to Indonesian voters for overcoming all sorts of promises, disinformation and misinformation during the political campaign. The still as-yet-unconfirmed victory of roughly 55% was a testimony to their trust in Jokowi's leadership style, and their willingness to see him carry out his past and present campaign promises.
During his second term, Jokowi will face mounting internal pressure for more domestic reforms and economic growth. His pledge of 7% economic growth during the previous election remains elusive. The highest growth rate registered was about 5.2% during the first term.
However, renewed confidence and more practical policies -- especially infrastructure improvements, more incentives for foreign investors, and higher-quality exports -- would increase the country's economic efficiency and lessen trade deficits. Issues related to transparency, governance and corruption will remain high on the list of needed reforms.
Thanks to the growing maturity of the country's democratic development, which runs against the global trend of democratic retreat, Indonesia's trajectory and its leadership in Asean and worldwide would be more pronounced.
As the world's biggest secularised Muslim nation, Indonesia's two-decade-old democracy has served its reputation well. Even though there were fears prior to the election that Jokowi resorted to identity politics to win votes among Muslims, it is clear now that he would not press on and continue this pathway, knowing the danger of mixing religion with politics. He is mindful that he must not let hostile extremist forces -- both inside and outside -- use religion to drive a wedge among Indonesians.
At the global level, Indonesian diplomats are more confident. Compared with other major Muslim countries, such as Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan, Indonesia has come out on top.
Although Indonesia's global influence is much less in the Middle East and elsewhere, its brand of participatory democracy has credentials and is widely acknowledged, something rare among the members of Organisations of Islamic Cooperation. As such, Indonesia chooses to focus on issues in which it can make a difference at the global and regional level.
As one of the non-permanent members of the UN Security Council (2019-2020), Indonesia has a clear agenda at the world body. With Indonesia sitting as president of the UNSC in May, Jakarta wants to focus on the area of UN peacekeeping forces, particularly the plan to increase the operation's financial sustainability. Indeed, this is an issue that could raise eyebrows in the US.
Under President Donald Trump, the US would like to slash funding for UN peacekeeping forces. Previously, the forces' traditional role was to help maintain ceasefires and stabilise post-conflict situations to give political efforts a chance to resolve conflicts. However, since the end of the Cold War, the peacekeepers have performed multiple tasks, such police and civilian work to maintain peace. Indonesia wants to ensure that the UN peacekeeping forces would be able to expand to more countries and become financially sustainable.
Within Asean, Indonesia would continue to maintain a strong profile on vital issues such as the Asean Indo-Pacific cooperation, the Rakhine State crisis in Myanmar, and peace and security on the Korean Peninsula. Jokowi will certainly push further Indonesia's effort to become a regional maritime power, as well as Asean's version of the Indo-Pacific initiative. Working closely with the Thai chair, Asean has drafted its own vision of cooperation among countries in mainland and maritime areas of the Indo-Pacific region, now officially known as Asean Indo-Pacific Outlook.
Jokowi's second term would strengthen Indonesia's moderating voice and position in Asean overall approach to the sensitive Rakhine crisis. Had his opponent, Prabowo Subianto, won the election, Indonesia's position would be dramatically changed.
For the time being, in the past few years, Indonesia has used discreet diplomacy to persuade Myanmar that outside help is urgently needed to help ease the Rakhine crisis.
Fortunately, the Rohingya issue was not held captive as part of the Indonesia's presidential campaign. During last May's election in Malaysia, former prime minister Najib Razak adopted a hard-line approach toward Myanmar on the Rohingya refugees, causing a deep wedge within Asean.
Its new administration under Mahathir has taken a softer but firmed approach, enabling closer cooperation among Asean members. At the Chiang Mai informal retreat in January, Asean foreign ministers agreed to help Myanmar create the right conditions for the repatriation of Rakhine Muslim refugees from Bangladesh.
At the Singapore summit last November, Jokowi suggested that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un should be invited to attend the third Asean-Korean summit in Busan, due to be held this Nov 25-26. As he starts his second term, his overture would be given serious consideration by all concerned Asean and dialogue partners including Brunei, the coordinating country for Asean-Korea relations.
Mr Kim has already met with the leaders of Singapore and Vietnam in bilateral talks. The opportunity to reach out to the region and meet the rest of Asean's leaders may well be irresistible, granted their non-hostile nature and huge potential for economic cooperation.
Moreover, half of Asean's members have embassies in the capital of North Korea. Pyongyang officially applied to become a sectoral dialogue partner last year. However, senior Asean officials met recently to assess the bid, and agreed that the time was not right for North Korea's admission. North Korea has yet to carry out its promise for denuclearisation.
Overall, when it comes to the situation on the Korean Peninsula, Asean and South Korea share common positions, wanting to continue to engage with North Korea through dialogue and diplomacy. Helping the "Hermit Kingdom" to socialise with the region will be on the Asean agenda. Obviously, the right signal from Washington and Seoul is important to begin this long-term process.
Since Asean's inception, Indonesia has often taken the lead on political-security issues and cooperation. From now on, Jokowi can further accelerate his country's economic integration with Asean after some recalcitrance during his first term.
Being the only Asean member in the G20, Indonesia's rising profile and reputation on multilateral trade would benefit Asean. As the largest Asean economy and non-aligned regional power, Indonesia can further strengthen Asean centrality and relevance.
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April 30, 2019 at 04:00AM
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