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Kamis, 29 Februari 2024

Chiefs grant CB L'Jarius Sneed permission to seek trade - NFL.com

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The Kansas City Chiefs could be saying goodbye to one of their defensive stars.

The Chiefs have granted cornerback L'Jarius Sneed permission to seek a trade, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported on Wednesday. Rapoport added the Chiefs could elect to use their franchise tag on Sneed ahead of next Tuesday's deadline and then trade the fourth-year defensive back.

If Kansas City does indeed tag Sneed by the March 5 deadline, the organization will have until mid-July to either lock him into a larger extension or presumably make good on its word and trade him. The one-year franchise tag for cornerbacks is set at $19.8 million for the 2024 season.

The 2020 fourth-rounder has blossomed into a stud for the Chiefs during his rookie contract, developing a reputation for sticky coverage with 10 interceptions, 40 passes defensed, four forced fumbles and 6.5 sacks in his career.

Teams are sure to come calling, but they'll have to compete with the K.C.'s negotiating power and the lure of sticking it out with the team that drafted him to make a run at a Super Bowl three-peat.

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Kenley Jansen sounds miserable waiting for Red Sox to trade him - New York Post

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Kenley Jansen isn’t bustling with joy at spring training in Fort Meyers, Fla., as he prepares for his second season as the Boston Red Sox closer.

“I just have to have the mindset that I need to get ready regardless, right?” Jansen told the Boston Globe on Wednesday. “So all the buzz that’s going on around me, all that stuff, it’s not time for me to focus on it.”

Jansen has been the subject of trade rumors that he hopes would bring him to a team with postseason aspirations.

The 36-year-old helped the Dodgers win the 2020 World Series and has a career 2.20 postseason ERA in 65 1/3 innings.

Kenley Jansen is ripe for a trade, but might not get his wish until the season starts. Getty Images

There has been some noise that the Dodgers could re-acquire Jansen, but those trade talks are likely to continue into the season.

Boston is projected to finish last in the AL East having torn down its roster, and Jansen being one of the few remaining pieces of a once-win-now movement.

“The vision then, the vision now is totally different,” Jansen said of his decision to sign with the Red Sox ahead of last season. “But I can’t question myself, man. There is frustration because you have other options, but I think playing in Boston and being in Fenway is special, and I always wanted to experience that.”

Jansen appeared in 51 games as a member of the Red Sox in a disappointing 78-84 last-place season.

He seems to have some buyer’s remorse with the two-year, $32 million contract he signed.

Lefty veteran Chris Sale was traded to Atlanta in a shocking move, while fellow veterans Justin Turner and James Paxton departed in free agency.

This year’s spring training roster is littered with young, unproven talent that the front office hopes will get Boston to a place where they can compete but for less money.

Kenley Jansen throws during spring training on Feb. 22, 2024. Getty Images

“Understanding that some other teams have bigger payrolls — not saying more talent, for you to be in the big leagues you got to have some kind of talent — but with more established players on other rosters, these guys are young and have to believe in themselves now,” Jansen said.

The Boston Globe notes that Jansen could be moved in a trade for a prospect or two to help shed some of the $16 million Jansen is owed this season.

The team also brought in another late leverage arm, Liam Hendriks, further complicating Jansen’s role on the current roster.

Jansen prepares for the regular season in spring training in Fort Meyers Fla. Getty Images

But that trade isn’t expected to happen until the season starts and potentially could happen around the trade deadline.

“It is tough,” he said. “We’ll see how the season starts.”

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Rabu, 28 Februari 2024

3 companies are driving the 'Magnificent 7' trade - Yahoo Finance

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Big Tech's strong performance versus the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is often attributed to the success of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. But it's really about three names this time around.

Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN) have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 to start 2024. Nvidia has led the trio, surging nearly 60% compared to the benchmark index's 6% increase.

The three names have also topped the performance of their peers in the Magnificent Seven. Microsoft (MSFT) has gained about 8% this year. Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), and Tesla (TSLA) have lost value through about two months of trade in 2024.

The stock moves are largely earnings based. In the current earnings season, Nvidia once again blew out expectations. Meta announced plans for a $50 billion share repurchase program and the company's first-ever dividend. Meanwhile, Amazon surprised to the upside with its revenue metrics.

Over the last 30 days as Wall Street analysts digested the latest round of corporate results from all seven Big Tech players, Meta, Amazon, and Nvidia saw the largest increases in earnings projections for both the current year and next year, according to research from DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe.

Meanwhile, Tesla and Microsoft were the only two of the group to see their earnings estimates move lower by more than the S&P 500 for next year.

The quarterly results of these companies are likely to shape the direction of the market at large. On Tuesday, Barclays head of US equity strategy Venu Krishna wrote that Big Tech earnings per share estimates for 2024 have "improved considerably" and moved the floor up for total S&P 500 earnings projections this year.

Consequently, the firm moved up its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,300 from 4,800 in part because of Big Tech earnings expectations. Goldman Sachs recently struck a similar tone in its call for the S&P 500 to end this year at 5,200.

"US Big Tech’s superior earnings estimate momentum versus the S&P 500 as a whole goes a long way in explaining why most of them have been able to continue to build on their [more than one] year run of outperformance," Rabe wrote in a note to clients on Monday night. "As much as rates have risen this year, most Big Tech names are in considerably better fundamental shape than the broader US equity market.

"As long as they keep delivering on earnings results in the same manner as last quarter, most of these stocks should keep outperforming and driving the S&P higher."

FILE - A Nvidia office building is shown in Santa Clara, Calif., May 31, 2023. Nvidea reports results on Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu, File)
A Nvidia office building is shown in Santa Clara, Calif., May 31, 2023. (Jeff Chiu/AP Photo, File) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

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Trump says his trade war triggered job gains. Here's why that didn't happen. - ABC News

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A sewing machine manufacturer in Ohio froze employee wages, a New York City-based wheelchair producer forced layoffs at a U.S. supplier and a drone seller in Florida struggled to offer pay increases and hire workers.

The companies were among hundreds who filed comments with the federal government over the negative consequences of tariffs put in place under then-President Donald Trump. Many of the businesses bemoaned sudden employment-related difficulties, government filings show.

Drone Nerds, the Florida-based firm, criticized the tariffs in a filing as "a dead-weight loss for the economy."

The challenges reflect findings in a series of studies that show the tariffs undertaken by Trump resulted in at best a neutral effect on U.S. employment and at worst a loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs, all the while raising prices for consumers.

On the campaign trail, Trump has vowed to escalate the trade war initiated during his first term. Such policies would spur employment in some industries acutely threatened by foreign goods but the overall result would be further job losses due to a rise in costs for companies across the economy, experts told ABC News.

"Some jobs would be created," Raymond Robertson, a professor of economics and government at Texas A&M University, told ABC News. "But it's going to come with higher prices and the market will adjust with lower demand for workers."

In response to ABC News' request for comment, the Trump campaign rebuked criticism of the tariffs, pointing to strong economic performance under Trump.

"It's no surprise that organizations funded by foreign outsourcers, globalist corporations, and Chinese business interests don't like President Trump's historic tariffs -- but the American people don't need made-up 'models' to know how much better our economy was under President Trump," Karoline Leavitt, the campaign's national press secretary, told ABC News.

"By cutting regulations and taxes and using the leverage of the United States to negotiate better trade deals around the world, President Trump built the strongest economy in American history," Leavitt added.

During his tenure, Trump placed tariffs on aluminum and steel from a host of countries, including Mexico, Canada and the European Union.

Meanwhile, he taxed hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods from China, raising import costs for everything from shoes to BMX bikes to computer chips.

Trump's tariffs decreased U.S. employment by 166,000 jobs, according to a study from the nonprofit Tax Foundation, which cited an increase in import costs for U.S. employers. A separate study from the U.S.-China Business Council estimated up to nearly 250,000 lost jobs as a result of the tariffs.

The manufacturing sector drew special attention from Trump, who touted the potential for rejuvenating U.S. production.

However, in 2019, the Federal Reserve Board found that the tariffs had led to a 1.4% decline in manufacturing employment, which amounts to roughly 175,000 missing jobs that would've otherwise been created in the absence of the policy, Katheryn Russ, an economics professor at the University of California, Davis, told ABC News.

The primary reason for the job losses, experts said, owes to the increased costs for materials imported by U.S. firms, which in many cases raised prices to make up for the shortfall and in turn lost out on business. Retaliatory tariffs, which raised the prices paid for U.S. exports, also negatively impacted jobs, the experts added.

PHOTO: Brad Smith, president of Microsoft Corp., left, and Sonia Syngal, chief executive officer of Gap Inc., right, listen as President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting, May 29, 2020.

Brad Smith, president of Microsoft Corp., left, and Sonia Syngal, chief executive officer of Gap Inc., right, listen as President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting, May 29, 2020.

rin Schaff/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images

"What we know is that the tariffs increased costs for manufacturers," Russ said. "So overall they are associated with a decline in employment among manufacturers who used the goods targeted by tariffs."

Neel's Saddlery and Harness, a small seller of industrial sewing machines based in Lima, Ohio, suffered an immediate 20% drop in sales in 2018, after Trump placed tariffs on China-made sewing machines.

"Our prices had to go up and customers expressed dissatisfaction," Ryan Neel, the owner of the company, told ABC News. "It was very stressful."

In response to mounting losses, the company froze wages and ultimately laid off two of its six employees, Neel said. "I didn't tell them it was because of the tariffs," Neel added. "I said it was because we were losing business. But I think they could put two and two together."

To be sure, the tariffs have protected some industries vulnerable to cheap foreign goods, likely bolstering employment in those areas. A trade group representing steel pipe manufacturers and another advocating for wood flooring producers, for instance, defended the tariffs in comments to the U.S. International Trade Commission.

In the absence of the tariffs, "large quantities of unfairly priced Chinese imports of steel pipe would be likely to result in U.S facility closures and the loss of thousands of U.S. manufacturing and related jobs," the American Line Pipe Producers Association Trade Committee said.

President Joe Biden, for his part, has kept many of the tariffs in place.

Trump has recently vowed to expand the trade war if he takes office next year, promising to impose tariffs on most imported goods. Speaking with Fox Business in August, Trump said the tax on imported items could ultimately stand at 10%.

Earlier this month, when asked by Fox News' Maria Bartiromo whether he would consider implementing a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, Trump said: "No, I would say maybe it's going to be more than that."

Higher tariffs would protect some industries but the ultimate effect would be a deepening of the job losses caused by the initial round of measures, experts said.

"If we impose 60% tariffs, that will have significant adverse effects on U.S. supply chains, employment and prices," said Robertson, of Texas A&M.

Neel said his firm would likely go out of business under such tariffs.

"The immediate drop in sales would be tremendous and jobs would be eliminated," Neel said.

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3 companies are driving the 'Magnificent 7' trade - Yahoo Finance

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Big Tech's strong performance versus the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is often attributed to the success of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. But it's really about three names this time around.

Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN) have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 to start 2024. Nvidia has led the trio, surging nearly 60% compared to the benchmark index's 6% increase.

The three names have also topped the performance of their peers in the Magnificent Seven. Microsoft (MSFT) has gained about 8% this year. Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), and Tesla (TSLA) have lost value through about two months of trade in 2024.

The stock moves are largely earnings based. In the current earnings season, Nvidia once again blew out expectations. Meta announced plans for a $50 billion share repurchase program and the company's first-ever dividend. Meanwhile, Amazon surprised to the upside with its revenue metrics.

Over the last 30 days as Wall Street analysts digested the latest round of corporate results from all seven Big Tech players, Meta, Amazon, and Nvidia saw the largest increases in earnings projections for both the current year and next year, according to research from DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe.

Meanwhile, Tesla and Microsoft were the only two of the group to see their earnings estimates move lower by more than the S&P 500 for next year.

The quarterly results of these companies are likely to shape the direction of the market at large. On Tuesday, Barclays head of US equity strategy Venu Krishna wrote that Big Tech earnings per share estimates for 2024 have "improved considerably" and moved the floor up for total S&P 500 earnings projections this year.

Consequently, the firm moved up its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,300 from 4,800 in part because of Big Tech earnings expectations. Goldman Sachs recently struck a similar tone in its call for the S&P 500 to end this year at 5,200.

"US Big Tech’s superior earnings estimate momentum versus the S&P 500 as a whole goes a long way in explaining why most of them have been able to continue to build on their [more than one] year run of outperformance," Rabe wrote in a note to clients on Monday night. "As much as rates have risen this year, most Big Tech names are in considerably better fundamental shape than the broader US equity market.

"As long as they keep delivering on earnings results in the same manner as last quarter, most of these stocks should keep outperforming and driving the S&P higher."

FILE - A Nvidia office building is shown in Santa Clara, Calif., May 31, 2023. Nvidea reports results on Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu, File)
A Nvidia office building is shown in Santa Clara, Calif., May 31, 2023. (Jeff Chiu/AP Photo, File) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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Browns, other teams propose pushing trade deadline back two weeks - NBC Sports

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The NFL trade deadline came after Week Eight during the 2023 NFL season and some teams would like to see it fall later in the calendar in the future.

During a Tuesday appearance on PFT Live, Browns General Manager Andrew Berry said that his team and other clubs have proposed pushing the deadline back. The proposed change would be two weeks, which would be after Week 10 of the regular season.

Berry also talked about the proposal when he met with reporters at the Scouting Combine earlier in the day and said that the deadline never moved back when the schedule moved to 17 games a few years ago. Doing so would move the NFL more in line with other leagues in terms of when the deadline falls in the schedule and it would give teams more time to decide where they are in the playoff hunt.

Any change would require the approval of 24 teams and there should be a better idea of whether that’s a possibility as March’s league meetings draw closer.

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Selasa, 27 Februari 2024

The Rundown: The Trade Desk's take on the next year in ad tech - Digiday

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Media buyers and publishers yesterday packed the halls of New York’s The Times Center, where The Trade Desk laid out its vision for alternatives to third-party cookies.

Dubbed Forward ‘24: TV’s Tipping Point, the event was hosted the same month as the industry’s largest independent demand-side platform revealed GAAP revenue of nearly $2 billion for 2023, up 23% from the previous year.

Although it is in the coming year, with the industry at a crossroads for the future of ad targeting and campaign measurement both on TV and online, where the answers to some of the industry’s most crucial questions lie.

Sharing a stage with leading media executives from PepsiCo, Samsung Mobile, and Unilever, leading execs at the DSP shared their vision for the year ahead.

Industry dynamics are getting more complicated

Speaking on stage with veteran media executive Lou Paskalis, The Trade Desk CEO Jeff Green was quizzed on whether or not the evolving dynamics between marketers, media agencies and tech platforms meant they may go “more client direct” in future?

Green’s answer was nuanced, but he did acknowledge how the traditional dynamics of the industry are in flux. “I want to be clear, we have never been interested in disintermediating agencies,” he said, but, “it is going to get more complicated… the need for agents and advisors is greater than it’s ever been before.”

Per Green’s assessment, as more marketers take more direct control of their first-party data operations, and while others may continue to opt for an outsourced model, the role of tech-providers will evolve.

“Some will use agencies – and I think the most of them will – so it’s important that we have a relationship with both agencies and clients,” he said, adding how continued relationships with agencies are critical to the company’s future.

SPO is coming to CTV

Digiday recently revealed how The Trade Desk is rolling out direct integrations with CTV publishers such as Vizio and Cox Media Group with sources in the sector, who wished to remain anonymous due to commercial sensitivities, also confirming they are in similar talks with The Trade Desk.

Of course, all of this is an extension of its pre-existing supply-path optimization program OpenPath, a program where it integrates directly with media owners, instead of via traditional supply-path partners, a program that it is now bringing to its CTV operations.

Identity and interoperability are key to its rollout

In what is billed as the last year of the third-party cookie given the planned sunsetting of its support within Google Chrome, the entire sector turning to a series of bespoke replacements, or identifiers.

Arguably, The Trade Desk-led UID2 is the most high profile version of such offerings with the DSP’s chief commercial officer telling Forward ‘24 attendees most of the major CTV streaming platforms support the identifier.

Appearing on stage with Green was also Disney svp of addressable sales Jamie Power who explained how the company began building its own first-party datasets, or “identity-graph,” in order to boost match rates with advertisers.

Over the last two years, this has included an interoperability partnership with UID2 in a bid to bolster addressability, with Power informing conference attendees how it intends to use such techniques to make 75% of its operations automated within the next three years.

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WTO enforces new rule for simplifying services trade, India stays out | Mint - Mint

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These regulations, which apply on a Most Favored Nation (MFN) basis, aim to make authorization processes more transparent and accessible, with commitments to gender equality.

However, only 72 out of the WTO’s 164 members are a party to the agreement.

India and South Africa were among countries that did not sign this agreement.

Indian experts said as a multilateral trade body, the WTO should focus on core issues like WTO reforms, reviving the appellate body, agriculture reforms, etc.

The regulations are a response to the bureaucratic challenges faced by businesses in cross-border service trade, aiming to simplify procedures and promote equal opportunities for service suppliers worldwide.

"While details of the Agreement are still awaited, the new agreement looks like plurilateral agreement, where not everyone is a party. India and South Africa have not signed this Agreement. WTO, being the top multilateral trade body should rather focus on core issues of interest to all members and not of a few," said Ajay Srivastava, the founder of Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

Meanwhile, global leaders at the meeting, being held in Abu Dhabi, on Tuesday argued for the need to reduce the trade in plastics citing greenhouse emissions from its use. They also emphasized the need to rationalize, phase out or eliminate harmful fossil fuel subsidies through existing or new mechanisms.

The global trade in plastics reached over $1.2 trillion during 2022, as per UN data, with the agency predicting that 19% of greenhouse gas emissions would come from plastics by 2040.

As many as 78 members -- excluding India -- are participating in the Plastics Pollution Dialogue, representing 85% of the global trade volume.

The Dialogue on Plastic Pollution and Environmentally Sustainable Plastics Trade (DPP) seeks to get WTO members to reduce plastics pollution and promote environmentally sustainable trade in plastics.

During the dialogue, members of the participating countries stressed increasing transparency of trade flows of plastics, given that single-use plastics, plastic films and hard-to-recycle plastics as well as those embedded in traded goods are not captured by trade data.

Though India is not part of the group, the country has taken several measures to reduce plastic usage, including imposing a ban on single-use plastic in 2022. As things stand, India is the fifth-highest generator of plastic waste in the world.

At the conference, 49 members, excluding big economies like India, the US and China, also discussed a fossil fuel subsidy reform (FFSR) initiative.

The initiative builds on the WTO members' commitments under Sustainable Development Goal 12(c) of the 2030 Agenda and in the context of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

It also contributes to efforts to transition from fossil fuels in energy systems.

Total fossil fuel subsidies amounted to about $7 trillion, or about 7.1% of global GDP in 2022, according to a working paper released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last year.

While India ranked fourth among the top five nations in fossil fuel subsidies with around $350 billion, China occupied the top place, followed by the US and Russia. The European Union and Japan shared the fifth spot.

While the G20 countries have committed to reducing fossil fuel subsidies to achieve the goals of energy security and climate protection, emerging economies like India rely largely on fossil fuels for a large chunk of their energy needs.

India has pledged to reach net zero by 2070 at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow in 2021, which means it will be able to balance the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) it produces with the amount removed from the atmosphere.

 

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Published: 27 Feb 2024, 08:41 PM IST

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Freeing Free Trade - Boston Review

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Pax Economica: Left-Wing Visions of a Free Trade World
Marc-William Palen
Princeton University Press, $35 (cloth)

To many today, the idea that free trade brings peace looks like bygone naïveté at best and neoliberal apologism at worst. Contrary to the aspirations of the late twentieth-century free trade moment, history—much less war—did not end with the expansion of global trade. And now, in the aftermath of the rise of China and the 2008 financial crisis, free-trade optimism in the United States has given way to bipartisan consensus in favor of economic nationalism—what some are even calling a “new Cold War” with China.

At a time when it can be hard to remember why anyone ever thought otherwise, historian Marc-William Palen has excavated a history of those who believed that free trade and peace went together. Palen characterizes these idealists as “left-wing,” though his tent is big, accommodating Christian social reformers such as Kirby Page and Sherwood Eddy as much as revolutionary Marxists like Vladimir Lenin, Karl Kautsky, and to some extent Marx himself. In practice, the wide range of nineteenth- and twentieth-century thinkers he considers were united by opposition to war. They thought that trade barriers were just war by other means—and that free trade could create a world without war.

Palen is clearly sympathetic to this view; his aim is to vindicate free trade as a friend of peace, if only because “real free trade” has scarcely, if ever, been tried. He offers an instructive reckoning with what has passed for free trade until now, allowing us to see that actually existing free trade since the 1970s let us down because it was never free. Instead, neoliberal trade was burdened by unilateralism all along, amounting to little more than war by other means. In our increasingly nationalist moment, he asks, is there a pro-peace, anti-imperial vision of free trade still available to us?


At the center of Palen’s story is the English politician Richard Cobden (1804–1865) and “Cobdenite intellectuals” that followed him such as Herbert Spencer and Henry George. Cobden is perhaps best known for his efforts in challenging the Corn Laws in Britain—tariffs on imported corn—which he and his followers saw as upholding landed interests and increasing consumer prices for the average worker. Over time, Cobden noted the links between his battle against tariffs and trade restrictions and the broader struggle for world peace. Governments of the day raised revenue for waging wars through tariffs, which in turn raised consumer prices. Conversely, lower military expenditures meant lower tariffs, and when tariffs came down, so did the metaphorical barriers between countries, enabling free association for the sake of mutual benefit and prosperity.

True free trade, Cobden and his followers believed, was free not just in the sense of being open to all but in the sense of being voluntary and uncoerced. This meant that free trade could not be achieved through use of force, contrary to the pretensions of British empire. Where his opponents believed that nations had to be forced to open up if they did not voluntarily accept Britain’s terms of trade, Cobden opposed Britain’s imperial rule of India and invasion of Canton. He and his followers clearly saw the connection between mercantilist imperialism abroad and aristocratic rule at home. It was, after all, the elites of each nation that gained the most from restrictions on trade and the waging of war.

This vision of free trade found a foil in German American economist Friedrich List and his followers, who argued for a policy that would protect infant industries by increasing tariffs. As these thinkers saw it, Britain was denying other empires the very means it had used to consolidate its power in the world. This Listian alternative did have a vision of international trade, but it was one of trading blocs created through tit-for-tat reciprocity, tariff retaliation, and imperial expansion (with colonies providing raw materials at low prices).

List’s ideas had their roots in the “American System,” which in turn dated back to Alexander Hamilton’s efforts in the newly independent United States to shore up U.S. economic competitiveness. List’s The National System of Political Economy (1841) drew from this tradition but found a wider audience internationally, gaining the support of Western industrializing powers that wanted to contest Britain’s dominance. By the end of the nineteenth century, politicians such as Otto von Bismarck and William McKinley took up List’s cause in full force, with the latter’s Republican Party opening up a new age of U.S. empire in the Caribbean and Pacific.

Cobden’s free-trade pacifism, meanwhile, endured in the work of a wide range of activists and social reformers, from early feminists in the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom to Christians in the YMCA. After nearly a century, their efforts appeared to pay off: the end of World War II promised a new moment of multilateralism. These activists celebrated the birth of the United Nations and the Bretton Woods institutions. Cordell Hull, secretary of state under Franklin Delano Roosevelt and successor to the advocates of commercial peace, received the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in supporting the nascent UN.

But the door to world peace under multilateral institutions closed as quickly as it opened. Palen argues that the left-liberal and pacifist associations of free traders were lost to the geopolitical fracturing of the Cold War. The story of U.S.-led “free trade” during this period, which Palen tells in the final chapter of his book, had two features.

The first was trading blocs that closely resembled Listian tariff walls, often taking the form of regional integration, starting with the creation of the European Economic Community in 1957 and later exemplified by the North American Free Trade Agreement of 1994. As Palen writes, these fragmented approaches to free trade were politically malleable, available for repackaging to domestic constituencies as either free-trade initiatives or protectionist blocs between ideologically aligned countries.

The second feature of U.S.-led “free trade” was the use of force by the United States to deal with nations outside its sphere of influence. Successive U.S. administrations resorted to interventionism in places like Iran, Chile, Indonesia, and Haiti to suppress home-grown political movements and prop up authoritarian regimes, all in the name of protecting the market and securing trade. They also used economic coercion—with effects as devastating as outright invasion—to freeze out those seen as enemies. The clearest example is the Cuban embargo, which along with many other sanctions has been unrelentingly enforced—with devastating humanitarian consequences—even and especially during the heyday of neoliberalism. Initiated in 1962 under John F. Kennedy, the embargo is the longest-running trade embargo in modern history.

On this account, the neoliberals who were ascendant by the 1970s dramatically shifted the meaning of free trade—all but rejecting Cobdenite commitments to peace and democracy and coopting the multilateral organizations that an earlier generation of free traders had pushed hard to create. Institutions such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the predecessor to the World Trade Organization (WTO), pursued a vision of “free trade” shaped above all by the imperative of U.S. geopolitical dominance.


Though Palen does not discuss them in the book, the history of postwar multilateral organizations buttresses his account of the U.S. postwar trade agenda. According to the conventional narrative, it was under the auspices of U.S. hegemony that free trade dramatically expanded in the last decades of the twentieth century. As Andrew Lang explains in World Trade Law after Neoliberalism (2011), the United States led the charge on free trade agreements and multilateral instruments, like the GATT and WTO, that lowered tariffs and liberalized trade. But in reality, these organizations stood for “free” trade only as it was defined according to U.S. advantage.

The 1970s were a turning point for U.S. trade policy, marking the beginning of the end of its postwar dominance in world markets. In that decade, U.S. imports began to increase at a faster pace than exports, eventually opening a trade deficit that has never closed. At the same time, the United States’ greatest allies, Japan and the European Community, were also its greatest rivals: as America went from producing a third of world manufactures in the 1950s to 13 percent in 1971, the European and Japanese economies dramatically increased manufacturing capacity, especially in the steel and automobile industries.

In this environment, the United States faced domestic pressure to address its slipping competitive advantage. Soon there emerged a consensus between organized labor and business interests that the problem was other countries’ protectionism—that is, other nations failing to play by the rules of the free-market game. Much of this ire was directed toward Japan. As hearings for what became the landmark Trade Act of 1974 were under way, George Meany, former president of the AFL-CIO, made an impassioned speech before Congress. U.S. industrial rivals such as Japan enacted laws that had the effect of restricting imports, he claimed—even if they were not explicitly called tariffs.

In many instances these laws dealt with domestic regulations, ranging from license requirements for selling products and screen time quotas for motion pictures to state monopolies on agricultural goods. Meany and others were particularly indignant at the Japanese government’s perceived support of its domestic industry through such policies as cheap credit and research and development subsidies. Meany was describing what came to be known as “non-tariff barriers” to trade: domestic regulations of industry that made it difficult in practice, if not explicitly on paper, for foreign imports to break into a market.

These demands led to the inclusion of what is called “Section 301” in the Trade Act of 1974, which enabled retaliatory measures (such as imposing duties or withdrawing trade concessions) in response to what the president deemed to be “unjustifiable” or “unreasonable” import restrictions. These restrictions did not have to constitute violations of international trade law, and often they were not. Under Ford and Carter, the primary target of Section 301 was Japan and other wealthy industrial rivals, but successive U.S. presidents increasingly used the provision to impose punitive tariffs against other countries.

Reagan was a central figure in these developments. Under his administration, the United States pioneered the use of Section 301 powers to discipline developing countries for their alleged failure to take intellectual property rights seriously. (The theory was that U.S. corporations lost their advantage vis-à-vis local industry for the technologies that they had invested in developing.) Such violations did not contravene international trade law at the time, but through these measures, the United States managed to put intellectual property protections on the agenda for multilateral negotiations in the GATT. In the Uruguay Round, which ended in 1994, the United States successfully pushed for the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights. In order to maintain access to world markets, developing countries had to pass domestic laws to come into compliance with these international standards, stifling domestic industrial production and even the manufacturing of generic drugs.

These negotiations ultimately climaxed in the birth of the WTO in 1995—a moment of triumph for the Washington Consensus. The United States, in the end, stood at the vanguard of trade liberalization only by getting to decide what free trade meant. So much for the fall of the Soviet Union heralding the end of history.


Can we imagine a truly free alternative, something more than unilateralism in disguise? On this score, Palen gestures to the postwar vision of the Third World movement and its allies, which was open to economic nationalism in a remedial, catch-up mode while stressing solidarity between oppressed nations.

This vision was not without its tensions and ironies. As Palen notes, List’s theory gained support in the nineteenth-century anticolonial movement in India, even though List himself thought the colonized nations of Africa and Asia deserved their fate. Indeed, using List’s own metaphor, Indian nationalists saw Britain’s forcibly imposed low tariffs as a way of “kicking away the ladder” to India’s industrial development. Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, believed that anticolonial economic nationalism—including boycotts of goods from colonial metropoles—was compatible with the international peace movement. Such boycott movements had an aspect of transnational solidarity, linking Ireland to India to China. Prominent Indian nationalists like Dadabhai Naoroji were even more strongly in favor of free trade, but they saw economic nationalism as a temporary stepping-stone to gaining the kind of autonomy necessary for genuinely free trade.

After decolonization, representatives of the Third World also attempted to balance anticolonial economic nationalism with international solidarity. At around the same time that Meany was testifying before Congress, a movement of newly independent, Global South nations to remake the world economy was on the rise. As Adom Getachew has charted in these pages, these efforts culminated in the New International Economic Order (NIEO) in the 1970s. Even as they advocated for economic sovereignty, proponents of the NIEO often took a conciliatory tone, stressing the vision of peaceful trade and interdependence that lay at the heart of their movement. At times, they even stressed that they were the “true” proponents of free trade against the monopolistic practices of Western former imperial powers.

As Salvador Allende argued in a landmark speech in 1972 at the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)—one of the institutional homes of the NIEO—the free trade that Western powers had evangelized was not free at all. The Bretton Woods institutions had advanced an agenda of selective market liberalization, lowering tariffs in areas only where it would be advantageous for wealthy countries. The terms of trade made it harder, in particular, for poor countries to export agricultural goods and raw materials. They argued for agreements to fix the price of commodities within a certain range, and more generally to grant preferential terms of trade to rectify the disadvantages that had accumulated from the colonial period.

For trade to be truly free, Allende argued, Western countries also had to stop using trade as a tool of great power struggle—and in particular, developed countries should not write trade policy that discriminated on the basis of the political system that developing countries adopted. This view was ultimately reflected in the UN General Assembly’s Charter of Economic Rights and Duties of States of 1974, which specified that developed countries should grant socialist countries “conditions for trade not inferior to those granted normally to the developed market economy countries.” (This view stood in contrast to the position held by many in the United States that this status should not be extended to socialist or Soviet bloc countries.) The charter passed by a vote of 120 to 6, with 10 abstentions; only the United States, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, and Luxemburg voted against.

As we know by now, these dreams came to a halt as the United States resisted granting preferential terms of trade, leading to a standstill in negotiations over the NIEO. Meanwhile, the U.S. government brutally intervened in countries, like Allende’s Chile, which had democratically elected left-wing movements. With the oil crisis at the end of the 1970s, developing countries fell deep into debt, the clutches of which they have not managed to escape from today.

Indeed—though Palen doesn’t give much attention to it—financialization poses another obstacle to a more just vision of globalization today. The money that Global South countries borrowed from U.S. financial institutions after the oil shocks came from the petrodollars that financial institutions gained from the oil price spikes. While expanding financial markets were supposed to inject new capital and liquidity in developing economies, they only opened the door to speculation and shocks caused by the short-term swings in capital, without changing the underlying productive capacity of the economies themselves. Because of this lopsided form of globalization, the vast majority of Global South countries did not experience improvements in their standard of living, and many even experienced sharp declines.

These features were clear enough at the time. In 2000, Martin Khor—then director of the Third World Network—wrote a discussion paper for UNCTAD. Looking back at the turn of the century, shortly after anti-globalization protests in Seattle, Khor wrote that economic globalization was not one phenomenon but three: liberalization in finance, trade, and direct investment. At the time, globalization had mostly meant the first. In trade, high tariffs persisted in sectors like agriculture where developing countries had a comparative advantage; as for investment, even though it had expanded somewhat between Global North and Global South, it mostly only reached a small set of developing countries. Today, some forms of protectionism in agriculture (most notably export subsidies) have declined significantly, but developed countries’ governmental support for agriculture has actually increased over the first two decades of the twenty-first century.

Moreover, U.S. dominance is baked into the very structure of neoliberal financialization. With the U.S. dollar as global reserve currency, financial transactions flow through and enrich the United States. This takes us further and further away from the model of mutually advantageous trade—in the Ricardian model, of commodities or even manufactured goods—that earlier generations of free-trade optimists could believe in. Other, so-called “non-traditional” currencies such as the renminbi and Indian rupee have recently made a bid to contest the dollar’s dominance, but the use of non-dollar currencies in large deals remains the exception. Meanwhile, China’s Belt and Road initiative proposes a model of globalization focused on financing and direct investment for infrastructure. It remains to be seen whether this vision represents a genuine alternative; so far, China’s approach seems to have been what legal scholar Ryan Martinez Mitchell calls “mimetic unilateralism”—the use of the same unilateral tools that the United States has used to assert geopolitical dominance in and through markets.


These are significant challenges, but an alternative is necessary to the escalating nationalist rhetoric that harms minorities at home and forces countries to choose sides in geopolitical struggle abroad. As Jake Werner has argued, progressives should reject the escalating zero-sum competition with China and instead support remaking the global economy through creating demand in the Global South. The realities of global commerce demand serious thinking about what a liberatory vision of free trade could look like, and on this score Palen’s book is a necessary and welcome provocation, if not a blueprint.

Any such vision will have to make careful distinctions between the kinds of markets we want to open up and the kinds of barriers to trade that should be dismantled. It will also have to be clear-eyed about putting countries in the Global South on level footing after centuries of extraction and structurally disadvantageous terms of trade—and thus about being genuinely global in the legitimacy and consensus it commands.

Boston Review is nonprofit and relies on reader funding. To support work like this, please donate here.

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These regulations, which apply on a Most Favored Nation (MFN) basis, aim to make authorization processes more transparent and accessible, with commitments to gender equality.

However, only 72 out of the WTO’s 164 members are a party to the agreement.

India and South Africa were among countries that did not sign this agreement.

Indian experts said as a multilateral trade body, the WTO should focus on core issues like WTO reforms, reviving the appellate body, agriculture reforms, etc.

The regulations are a response to the bureaucratic challenges faced by businesses in cross-border service trade, aiming to simplify procedures and promote equal opportunities for service suppliers worldwide.

"While details of the Agreement are still awaited, the new agreement looks like plurilateral agreement, where not everyone is a party. India and South Africa have not signed this Agreement. WTO, being the top multilateral trade body should rather focus on core issues of interest to all members and not of a few," said Ajay Srivastava, the founder of Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

Meanwhile, global leaders at the meeting, being held in Abu Dhabi, on Tuesday argued for the need to reduce the trade in plastics citing greenhouse emissions from its use. They also emphasized the need to rationalize, phase out or eliminate harmful fossil fuel subsidies through existing or new mechanisms.

The global trade in plastics reached over $1.2 trillion during 2022, as per UN data, with the agency predicting that 19% of greenhouse gas emissions would come from plastics by 2040.

As many as 78 members -- excluding India -- are participating in the Plastics Pollution Dialogue, representing 85% of the global trade volume.

The Dialogue on Plastic Pollution and Environmentally Sustainable Plastics Trade (DPP) seeks to get WTO members to reduce plastics pollution and promote environmentally sustainable trade in plastics.

During the dialogue, members of the participating countries stressed increasing transparency of trade flows of plastics, given that single-use plastics, plastic films and hard-to-recycle plastics as well as those embedded in traded goods are not captured by trade data.

Though India is not part of the group, the country has taken several measures to reduce plastic usage, including imposing a ban on single-use plastic in 2022. As things stand, India is the fifth-highest generator of plastic waste in the world.

At the conference, 49 members, excluding big economies like India, the US and China, also discussed a fossil fuel subsidy reform (FFSR) initiative.

The initiative builds on the WTO members' commitments under Sustainable Development Goal 12(c) of the 2030 Agenda and in the context of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

It also contributes to efforts to transition from fossil fuels in energy systems.

Total fossil fuel subsidies amounted to about $7 trillion, or about 7.1% of global GDP in 2022, according to a working paper released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last year.

While India ranked fourth among the top five nations in fossil fuel subsidies with around $350 billion, China occupied the top place, followed by the US and Russia. The European Union and Japan shared the fifth spot.

While the G20 countries have committed to reducing fossil fuel subsidies to achieve the goals of energy security and climate protection, emerging economies like India rely largely on fossil fuels for a large chunk of their energy needs.

India has pledged to reach net zero by 2070 at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow in 2021, which means it will be able to balance the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) it produces with the amount removed from the atmosphere.

 

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Published: 27 Feb 2024, 08:41 PM IST

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Senin, 26 Februari 2024

The digital crossroads: US leadership at stake in the global trade arena - The Hill

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The digital crossroads: US leadership at stake in the global trade arena | The Hill

The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill

United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai
Annabelle Gordon

United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai is seen during a House Ways and Means Committee hearing to discuss the President’s 2023 trade policy agenda on Friday, March 24, 2023.

At a pivotal moment in global trade, the United States stands at a digital crossroads.

Just a few months ago, the U.S. trade representative (USTR) sparked widespread concern—both at home and abroad—by unexpectedly stepping away from digital trade principles that have been the bedrock of American innovation and economic progress. Now, as the World Trade Organization (WTO) convenes for its upcoming session, the USTR has a critical opportunity to articulate America’s vision for the future of digital commerce. Failing to seize this moment would not only muddle the U.S.’s stance on a key global issue but also hand China an enduring strategic edge. This is more than a chance for clarification; it’s a crucial test of the U.S.’s ability to lead in the digital era.

Historically, the United States has championed the free flow of data, products, and services among allies and like-minded nations. This policy has both fueled our economic dynamism and also laid the groundwork for the U.S. to out-innovate global competitors on critical emerging technology like artificial intelligence (AI).

Yet, in a surprising pivot last October, the USTR announced its departure from long-supported digital trade doctrines that protected the free flow of data across borders, prohibited data localization mandates, and safeguarded software source code from forced disclosures. Some of these very principles were most recently implemented as an integral part of the 2020 United States-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement and the 2019 U.S.-Japan Digital Trade Agreement. The USTR’s abrupt policy shift rightly ignited bipartisan criticism, with more than 30 senators condemning the move as a boon to authoritarian regimes like China and Russia.  

The USTR’s withdrawal signifies more than just a policy reversal; it’s an alarming step back from the United States’ role in championing international technology standards that reflect our democratic values and bolster our economic security. This move not only undermines the capacity of the U.S. and other democracies to advocate for the free exchange of information across borders but also risks emboldening countries with authoritarian agendas. These regimes could enforce policies, such as mandatory in-country data storage and compulsory source code transfers, that directly jeopardize American technological leadership and compromise global technology security.

One senator described the USTR’s decision as “a win for China,” which underscores the gravity of the issue. In today’s political climate, where bipartisan agreement is rare, there’s a unique consensus in Washington that China poses the preeminent challenge to U.S. leadership. This shared understanding presents an opportunity for the U.S. to push back against the authoritarian ambitions and global influence of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Digital free trade stands at the heart of this strategic rivalry, cutting across party lines and affecting all Americans.

This issue also tests the U.S.’s commitment to policies driving tech sector success and job creation. Amidst a backdrop of global economic malaise and post-pandemic inflation, last year the U.S. economy grew faster than any other advanced country, buoyed by a robust 2.5 percent rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This surge was largely attributable to technological advancements that fueled productivity and spurred investment in infrastructure and manufacturing. Digital trade is the lifeblood of our new economy and the USTR’s policy reversal puts this forward trajectory at risk.

The WTO meeting is a chance for the United States to shape the future of digital trade by reiterating our strong support for digital trade principles based on American values. In doing so, we not only advance our own economic interests and enhance future competitiveness, but also reaffirm our nation’s role on the world stage as an advocate of innovation, economic strength, and the free flow of data necessary to address global challenges.

Kent Conrad represented North Dakota in the Senate from 1986 to 2013. Saxby Chambliss represented Georgia in the Senate from 2003 to 2015. Conrad and Chambliss serve as advisers to the American Edge Project, a coalition dedicated to the belief that American innovators are an essential part of U.S. economic health, national security and individual freedoms.

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